Armenia’s new parliament, to be elected on May 12, will be the first to make use of constitutional amendments introduced in 2005 to balance presidential and parliamentary powers. Analysts, however, and opposition members question whether or not the parliament, Armenia’s fourth since independence, will manage to serve as an effective counter-balance to President Robert Kocharian.

“This is the first time an opportunity is created to move the center of power from a person, the president, to a political body, the parliament,” commented parliamentarian Shavarsh Kocharian, chairman of the opposition National Democratic Party. “Whether Armenia will go in the direction of a lawful, democratic state, or the old tendencies will override that . . . depends on the quality of the future parliament.”

Then Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian’s July 2006 statement that he would take part in the 2008 presidential elections depending on how the ruling Republican Party of Armenia fares in the parliamentary polls has been taken by some observers as a sign of that transition.

Under the new constitution, approved in a 2005 referendum, the president will only be able to appoint a prime minister upon consent of the parliamentary majority, rather than upon his personal discretion. The president will lose the power to ratify government decisions, while cabinet sessions will be headed by the prime minister. Members of parliament will also have the right to make official inquiries into government actions.

However, many observers believe that the parliament’s enhanced powers will remain mostly on paper. President Kocharian himself steps down from office in 2008, thereby effectively limiting the effect of the changes on his administration.

“Traditions play a significant role in Armenia,” noted political analyst Aghasi Yenokian of the pro-opposition Alternative civil movement “And they dictate that decisions are made by the president, so it will be very hard to overrule the authorities.”

The United States and Europe largely welcomed the amendments themselves for what was seen as their democratic promise. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive.]

But independent political analyst Yervand Bozoian counters that the constitutional changes were not sufficient to decentralize political power in Armenia.

“Not using political reasoning, the opposition viewed the issue from their personal viewpoints, personified the program of reforms and did not include the most important changes that would result in true decentralization of power,” Bozoyan said. Regional governors, he cited as an example, will still be appointed by the president.

Some observers believe that the same problem could trip the opposition up at the May 12 parliamentary vote as well. Fourteen of the 22 parties and one election bloc running for parliament are pro-opposition – a number which could diminish their chances at the polls, many say.

One last-minute attempt at coalition has been made: On May 3, three opposition forces – the Republic Party, the New Times Party and the Impeachment bloc – joined forces for rallies to warn against election fraud, but the long-term political punch of this coalition remains unproven. On May 9, a rally staged by the coalition in front of the National Security Service headquarters led to a clash with police.

Coalition members have announced plans to sue the police for allegedly attacking demonstrators and have protested against what they term multiple violations of the election law by Yerevan city officials. The group says it was denied the right to hold a rally in a central Yerevan square on the basis of a May 9 Victory Day concert which was not staged at the site.

Nonetheless, such forms of cooperation have not always extended to individual races. Seven of Armenia’s 41 single-mandate constituencies have only one candidate – most from pro-government parties. Harutyun Hambardzumian, chairman of Armenia’s largest domestic observation group, It’s Your Choice, has termed the lack of alternative candidates a contradiction of “democratic principles.”

Echoing earlier opinion poll findings, political analyst Alexander Iskandaryan of Yerevan’s Caucasus Media Institute forecasts that two or three of Armenia’s largest parties will hold most of the new parliament’s 131 seats. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive.] The opposition, he believes, will have even fewer seats than it has today.

“Each of the opposition parties thinks purely of solving its own problems,” commented Iskandaryan. “They don’t have one general aim. Therefore, they will be weaker and will be fewer in the next parliament.”

Editor’s Note: Gayane Abrahamyan is a reporter for the independent online ArmeniaNow weekly in Yerevan.