Business & Economics:
RUSSIAN ECONOMIC AND STRATEGIC INFLUENCE IN KYRGYZSTAN SET TO EXPAND
Sergei Blagov: 4/25/06

Russian economic and strategic influence in Kyrgyzstan appears set to expand significantly following the April 24-25 visit to Moscow by Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. Russia’s announced intention to expand its military presence in Kyrgyzstan is heightening speculation about the future of a US military base in the Central Asia country.

Following April 24 talks with Bakiyev, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the expansion of the Russian air base at Kant, outside the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek, “is a priority of our cooperation.” Prior to Bakiyev’s visit, Russian military officials announced that Moscow intended to double the number of planes and personnel at the Kant base, which opened in 2003 and operates under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the RIA Novosti news agency reported. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In another sign of Kyrgyzstan’s drift into Russia’s security sphere, Putin also revealed that joint Russian-Kyrgyz anti-terrorism exercises would be scheduled for later this year. In addition, the Russian and Kyrgyz presidents agreed to enhance Bishkek’s participation in regional economic and security groupings, including the CSTO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

The expansion plan for the Kant base contrasts sharply with the uncertain situation surrounding the US air base at Manas, also outside Bishkek. Just days before Bakiyev flew to Moscow, he threatened to annul the US lease at Manas unless Washington dramatically increased the amount of rent that it pays. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Some Moscow commentators believe the Kremlin’s policy is designed to push the Kyrgyz government into closing the American base, which is the lone remaining US military outpost in Central Asia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

“Although the president didn’t mention it, the [increasing] presence of the Russian military may propel a concurrent reduction in the US military there [in Kyrgyzstan],” said a commentary published by the Russian daily Kommersant.

Of late, Russian officials have avoided the US-Kyrgyz base question. "It is the right of any state to [host] foreign military bases on its territory," the chief of the Russian General Staff, Yury Baluyevsky, told journalists on April 19. "The issue of the continued presence of the US air base is a matter to be settled between the two countries." In the past, however, Russian officials, including Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, have described the Manas base as “temporary,” while characterizing the Kant facility as "permanent."

Following a well-established Russian pattern, Bakiyev’s visit also produced a bevy of economic agreements that, when implemented, should bring Kyrgyzstan in a closer economic orbit around Russia.

“We are aware than many problems remain [in Kyrgyzstan], along with a difficult situation in the Kyrgyz economy,” the Kyrgyz AKIpress news agency quoted Putin as saying. “We will outline decisions that will allow cooperation to be stepped up.” Bilateral relations will expand under the auspices of a “historical strategic partnership," said a joint statement signed by the Russian and Kyrgyz leaders.

Economic projects announced during Bakiyev’s stay in Moscow focused on the energy sector and involved the Kremlin-dominated conglomerates, such as Gazprom and RAO Unified Energy Systems. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. For instance, Russia announced that it will assist the Kyrgyz government in completing two power plants. In addition, Bakiyev agreed in principle during an April 25 meeting with Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller on a joint venture involving the Kyrgyz national energy company, Kyrgyzneftigaz, and the Russian gas giant. Bakiyev and Miller reportedly agreed that joint exploration would begin immediately as the sides hammered out the venture’s details, AKIpress reported.

Bakiyev is returning to an increasingly restive Kyrgyzstan. A coalition of opposition politicians and non-governmental organization representatives is pressing ahead with plans for a mass protest in Bishkek on April 29. According to organizers, the demonstration is designed to pressure the president into taking immediate measures to curb rampant crime and corruption. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Some political analysts in Bishkek and Moscow interpreted the hastily arranged trip to Moscow as a sign that the Kyrgyz president desired to make a strategic swap with Putin: Kyrgyzstan’s unequivocal geopolitical allegiance to Moscow in exchange for Kremlin backing for Bakiyev. However, some Moscow commentators believe Bakiyev’s trip might turn out to be a case of all give and no take for the Kyrgyz leader. For example, Kommersant, citing informed sources, said that Putin dodged discussing Kyrgyzstan’s domestic political situation. “Putin didn’t encourage talk on the domestic political difficulties in Kyrgyzstan, including Bakiyev’s struggle with Prime Minister Felix Kulov, signaling that the Kyrgyz president will have to count on himself exclusively,” the Kommersant commentary said. With Putin reportedly keeping his options open concerning the brewing Kyrgyz political confrontation, Russia stands to retain its economic and strategic gains in Kyrgyzstan regardless of how developments unfold in the Central Asian nation in the coming weeks and months.

Editor’s Note: Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS political affairs.