In Georgia's "Rose Revolution", Red Ink Remains

Most discussion of Georgia since President Eduard Shevardnadze stepped aside on November 23 has involved military and strategic variables. As opposition leader Mikhail Saakashvili campaigns for January 4 presidential elections, he offers no new economic vision. And international lenders are still wondering how to collect this destitute country's debts.

Chronic debt has plagued this resource-poor, landlocked country's 11 years of independence. Interim president Nino Burjanadze has promised to pay pensions and teachers. But Georgia's foreign creditors, chiefly Turkey and Russia, have no such assurance. The United States, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, all of which have rescheduled Georgia's repayment due dates in the past, are trying again to plan the return of this country's more than $1.7 billion in debt. Tbilisi's political uncertainty – despite Saakashvili's popularity, January 4 elections may not draw adequate turnout to be in force – makes that debt riskier.

The World Bank, which has invested some $700 million in Georgian projects, announced on December 10 that Shigeo Katsu, its vice president for Europe and Central Asia, would meet with "new authorities, donor representatives, non-governmental organizations, private sector and media representatives." The bank is officially "very supportive of the current leadership," according to senior spokesperson Merrell Tuck-Primdahl, who notes that Bank programs "nurtured" Saakashvili and others during Shevardnadze's presidency. Saakashvili participated in the Bank's judicial reform effort, which produced a report in 2002.

Saakashvili and Burjanadze, both young reformers who have spoken out against corruption, cultivate such confidence in the abstract. "I think there will be some aid for Georgia, because a lot of people believe a page has been turned, and there are now younger, energetic and gifted people poised to take over," offers Charles William Maynes, president of the Eurasia Foundation, which supports programs pursuing political and economic reform.

It is impossible to predict aid amounts and terms, though. Corruption and a lack of transparency are ingrained in Georgian business, and it is not clear if organized crime syndicates will respect the new government or challenge it. It is also not clear how free of patronage a Saakashvili administration would be. Given these and other question marks, experts say it will take months for a comprehensive aid strategy to emerge.

"I do think Georgia will get extensive aid, and I also think it is likely the Georgians will be disappointed with the amount it will be," says Charles Fairbanks, director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute (CACI) at Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. Fairbanks advises against expecting "massive" numbers. That reflects a consensus that the presumptive new government, which pressured Shevardnadze to resign three weeks after widely condemned November 2 parliamentary elections, still has much to prove.

"There are questions about how the funds will be spent," says Cory Welt, visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a potent Washington think tank.

For the country's people, more than half of whom are poor, economic growth is as urgent as political reform. The economy cannot stabilize until donors become confident that aid will not go into players' pockets. The World Bank, says Tuck-Primdahl, wants to help Georgians "come to grips with corruption and