Tajikistan: Climate Change Could Devastate Central Asian Nation - Report

Tajikistan, Central Asia's most impoverished country, stands to be the hardest hit by climate change, according to a new report from the British charitable organization Oxfam International.

Tajikistan, which has done little to contribute to global warming, faces the prospect of prolonged and severe droughts, extreme hot and cold weather and food shortages in the coming decades. Farmers will need to adapt quickly, if a socio-economic disaster is to be avoided, the report, released on February 17, cautioned.

Decreasing water supplies and migration could also impact regional stability, added the report, titled Reaching the Tipping Point? Climate Change and Poverty in Tajikistan. "Droughts are increasing and temperatures are rising. Harvests are failing for lack of water. Entire swaths of the rural population of Tajikistan have already suffered greatly in recent years, barely able to feed their families," said Andy Baker, Oxfam's country director for Tajikistan.

"Imagine what their situation will be in 2050, if adaptation measures are not put into place soon, and if global greenhouse gas emissions are not adequately reined in. It could be calamitous," he added.

Local activists say villages and small communities in Tajikistan must be prepared to take the initiative as the central government may not be able to react meaningfully to localized problems.

"I think the climate situation is now the most important problem for Tajikistan," the report quoted Yuri Skochilov, the executive director of Youth Ecological Centers, a local non-governmental organization, as saying.

"The bottom line must be the real needs of people, and people must come up with adaptation measures by themselves, i.e. village development plans," he added.

According to the report, nearly 1.5 million people in Tajikistan are experiencing food insecurity and that number is certain to rise if Tajikistan is unable to implement reforms. At present, roughly 70 percent of Tajikistan's population lives in rural areas.

"It is indisputable that glaciers in Tajikistan are retreating. It is also indisputable that if glaciers continue to retreat, and the country experiences more extreme weather, countless people will be dealt an even harder blow," said Baker. "There could even be a dangerous ripple effect across Central Asia, with countries throughout the region potentially wrestling over dwindling water resources in coming decades."

Scientific researchers say Tajikistan and Central Asia could face acute water shortages within two decades. "If nothing is done, all the glaciers will melt and I don't know if we will have water in 20 years," the report quoted Natalya Mirzokhonova, a specialist at the Information Management and Analytical Centre at Tajikistan's Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, as saying.

The report identifies the creation of water and food storage facilities, along with the provision of assistance to farmers to buy and develop drought-resistant seeds and crops, as central to the effort to mitigate the "ominous" future facing Tajikistan.