EurasiaNet Civil Society - A Constitutional Battle Brews in Tajikistan

CIVIL SOCIETY

A CONSTITUTIONAL BATTLE BREWS IN TAJIKISTAN
3/17/03

A constitutional battle is brewing in Tajikistan. President Imomali Rahmonov hopes to hold a referendum that would repeal legislation currently barring him from running for reelection. Opposition leaders, meanwhile, say such a constitutional change could damage Tajikistan’s democratic development and possibly result in renewed confrontation.

The president’s supporters in parliament have said the existing basic law contains "inaccuracies" and could benefit from amending. The legislature, which is controlled by the pro-presidential People’s Democratic Party of Tajikistan, established a commission to study the referendum issue, which on March 6 endorsed the referendum idea. Tentative plans call for a referendum to be held as early as June.

In trying to justify the need for constitutional changes, Rahmonov’s parliamentary allies assert that Tajikistan is moving beyond the post-civil-war reconstruction phase and is entering a more stable political era. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The existing constitution, including amendments made in 1999, was "dictated by � the necessity of achieving accord in society in a post-conflict situation. The situation has greatly changed since then," said Shavkat Ismoilov, the chairman of parliament’s Committee on Law, Order, Defense and Security.

Roughly 30 constitutional amendments are being considered for a possible referendum, Ismoilov said. Rahmonov supporters tend to stress a change that would remove language that differentiated political movements into three different categories � "religious," "democratic" and "atheistic." All instead would be classified "political parties." That change would offer official recognition that Rahmonov’s Islamic opponents during the civil war have joined the political mainstream. The president’s civil war foes now comprise the backbone of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRP).

"Religious parties, which we considered to be alien and even did not tolerate in 1999, have emerged in our society," Ismoilov told the Asia-Plus news agency. "Now we know that such coexistence will not hinder the state’s development."

Opposition leaders, meanwhile, believe the main motivation for a referendum is Rahmonov’s desire to extend his term and enhance his personal authority. One of the major changes under consideration would remove language from Article 65 that would bar Rahmonov from running for another seven-year tem in 2006. Both the IRP’s Said Abdullo Nuri and the Social Democratic Party’s Rahmatillo Zoirov are categorically opposed to lifting the Article 65 ban on reelection.

Zoirov suggested that altering Article 65 could create a permanent imbalance of powers within the governmental structure. "Executive authority [at present] clearly prevails over the judicial and legislative [branches]. Therefore, efforts should be made towards strengthening legislative power and ensuring an independent judiciary," Zoirov said. "International democratic experience has shown there should be a limit to the term in office of any president."

The debate in Tajikistan is consistent with a trend across Central Asia in which chief executives have amassed broad powers at the expense of other branches of government. Regional leaders have also sought to extend their terms indefinitely and establish legislative protection against prosecution for excesses committed while in office. Kyrgyzstan’s referendum in February, for example, enhanced President Askar Akayev’s powers and introduced an amendment that grants him immunity from prosecution. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Since the Central Asian states gained independence in 1991, not one Central Asian leader has relinquished power voluntarily.

Zoirov expressed hope that opposition pressure and a public outcry may force changes in the administration’s referendum agenda. If the question on the Article 65 change ends up being included in a referendum, recent experience shows that it will be approved. Since the breakup of the former Soviet Union all referenda that have been held have approved changes sought by incumbent authorities.

The IRP’s Nuri said that Rahmonov, in pushing for a referendum, is trying to evade responsibility for Tajikistan’s ongoing political economic difficulties. "Society’s problems cannot be resolved by constant changing of the Constitution," Nuri told EurasiaNet. "If the country is going through an economic or political crisis it is not the fault of the laws, but the fault of bureaucrats implementing them."

In late February, when Rahmonov allies revealed plans to hold a referendum, Nuri warned that any move to enable Rahmonov to extend his tenure in office could "jeopardize unity and mutual understanding in the country."

Political analysts in Dushanbe say that the referendum debate in effect marks the opening of the presidential campaign, even though the election is three years away. Rahmonov, according to independent political scientists, is concerned that ongoing economic difficulties are serving to enhance the opposition’s popular appeal.

Recent statistics show that unemployment is high and is continuing to rise. Rahmonov has sought to shift blame for the government’s persistent shortcomings on economic and social policy to local officials. In January he carried out an extensive personnel reshuffle.

Political experts express concern that rising political tension between Rahmonov and his opponents may have a destabilizing effect on Tajik society. The ultimate beneficiary of the brewing conflict, the experts add, may be the Islamic radical Hizb-ut-Tahrir movement. The clandestine group has stepped up its activities in Tajikistan over the past year. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Political infighting could also benefit renegade bands that are active in northern Tajikistan, and which reportedly operate out of a base in the Surkhandarya region of Uzbekistan.

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