Early-Warning Project Seeks to Tame Tajikistan’s “Water Dragon”

The incident occurred July 13, when monitoring equipment installed in and around the lake detected a rise in its level of more than 25 centimeters (or just under one foot) over a 24-hour period, according to a World Bank statement. An emergency observation team was immediately dispatched to the lake and ultimately determined that the rising water was not a cause for sounding a general alarm.

"Although it was not the emergency first feared, the early warning system provided an opportunity to ensure that any imminent danger would have been known about early enough to save lives," the World Bank said in its August 15 statement.

Installation of the early-warning equipment, worth an estimated $1.5 million, was completed in December 2004 at Lake Sarez. It aims to alert authorities about potential developments at the lake, including mudslides and avalanches, which could cause water levels to surge, or weaken the Usoy Dam. Instruments also relay meteorological data, including wind-speed on the lake and precipitation.

"A functional monitoring system and trained government personnel are the best assets any country could expect to have to be prepared to manage unusual hydrological events such as a massive flood," Rita Cestti, the World Bank official responsible for the lake's Risk-Mitigation Project, said in the statement.

The World Bank launched the project in 2000, with assistance from the Tajik government and international organizations and non-governmental organizations, including USAID and the Aga Khan Foundation. In addition to the installation of the early-warning system, the project has trained residents in Bartang Valley beneath the Usoy dam on evacuation procedures and survival skills, while seeking to bolster officials' disaster-response capabilities. The overall cost of the project is $4.29 million.

Representatives of the World Bank and other organizations stress that a catastrophic flood is unlikely. Still, given the potential for devastation, no one is dismissive of the risk. "Should such a flood occur, the impact on the downstream valleys would be devastating, affecting up to 5 million people," the World Bank statement said. The impact of a dam break could be felt not only across Tajikistan, but also in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan." The Risk-Mitigation Project benefits roughly 130,000 Tajiks living in lake's immediate vicinity.

An earthquake in 1911 created the Usoy Dam, which led to the formation of Lake Sarez, named after an inundated village. The dam is over 550 meters high (over 1,500 feet) and sits about two miles above sea level in the Pamir Mountain range. Some of the peaks surrounding the lake are over 6,000 meters in height. The natural reservoir is now estimated to contain about 17 cubic kilometers of water.

The lake's water level is currently about 50 meters below the top of the dam, and it is rising at a current rate of 20 centimeters a year. Local experts estimate the dam is sturdy and unlikely to collapse. The greatest concern for scientists at this point is an avalanche or landslide that would cause water to surge over the top of the dam.