Radical Opposition Party Tops Public Opinion Poll in Georgia as Parliament Election Looms

Opposition leader Mikheil Saakashvili, head of the National Movement, has sought to shake up Georgia's political landscape during the country's parliamentary election campaign. New poll results indicate his confrontational methods are popular with potential voters. At the same time, Saakashvili's campaign tactics appear to increase the chances of Georgia being buffeted by post-election instability.

A survey sponsored by the Open Society Georgia Foundation (OSGF) showed that the National Movement has experienced a surge of support in recent weeks. With only days to go until the November 2 election, the National Movement is now the most popular party in Georgia with 22.8 percent support. Another leading opposition party, the Burjanadze-Democrats bloc, which had for several weeks been the front-runner, received 19.8 percent support. [ For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A third opposition group, the Labor Party, garnered 17.6 percent support. The pro-government For a New Georgia bloc trailed with 8.7 percent support. The OSGF survey was based on interviews with 1,000 people in Georgia's regions and another 1,000 in the capital Tbilisi, conducted October 19-22.

From the start of the campaign, Saakashvili has employed incendiary rhetoric in calling for an overhaul of Georgia's political establishment, which is dominated by President Eduard Shevardnadze. The National Movement's campaign slogan, for example, is "Georgia Without Shevardnadze." For Saakashvili, wresting parliament from the control of pro-presidential forces would mark a crucial step in the effort to drive Shevardnadze from power in the next presidential election, scheduled for 2005.

"The country needs radical democratic reforms. We need to reform law enforcement, crack down on corruption, introduce liberal tax laws and [create] incentives for business," Saakashvili said in an interview. "We need to get closer to Europe as fast as possible. We've lost so much time that we need to catch up."

Saakashvili and other opposition leaders suspect Shevardnadze's administration wants to steal the parliamentary election. They suggest the ongoing controversy over voter registration lists is connected with the government's vote-rigging desires. [ For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Saakashvili has also made a point of trying to hold campaign rallies in areas where opposition political parties have not been welcome, especially those that are inhabited predominately by non-Georgians.

"Shevardnadze's [allies] have created certain zones where they plan to pick up most of [their] votes," Saakashvili said. "These zones include regions inhabited by ethnic minorities, where the government still has some leverage to frighten them ... and they are afraid of the government."

The opposition, he added, is "handicapped from the very beginning because ... the government steals 30 percent of the vote from ethnic minorities."

The National Movement's attempts to hold rallies in areas with heavy concentrations of ethnic minorities have on several occasions led to violent confrontations. In late September, National Movement activists clashed with law-enforcement agents in the Bolnisi District of the Kvemo Kartli Region, which has a large concentration of ethnic Azeris. Local residents confirm that they feel intimidated by local officials. "They tell us who to vote for. People here are afraid," said Sombaz Alieva, a pensioner in Mamkhuti, a village in the Bolnisi District.

The most serious clash to date occurred October 23 in the autonomous republic of Ajaria, which Saakashvili described as a "fiefdom" of the regional leader Aslan Abashidze. The Ajarian leader heads the Union for Georgia's Democratic Revival, a regional party that the OSGF poll indicated would receive 8.3 percent of the vote in the upcoming election, sufficient to win seats in the next parliament.

The confrontation in the Ajarian capital Batumi involved approximately 500 National Movement supporters, who sought to stage a rally outside Abashidze's compound. Some carried provocative placards that called on Abashidze to step down. Saakashvili loyalists were opposed by regional law-enforcement officers and Abashidze political partisans. Dozens were reportedly injured in the melee. Subsequently, National Movement offices in Batumi were burned. Jemal Gogitidze, a Revival Party leader, characterized the National Movement's actions as an attempted coup.

The violence continued the following day, when National Movement leader Davit Berdzenishvili, who seeks to represent a Batumi constituency in parliament, was reportedly dragged from his car and severely beaten at an Ajarian checkpoint as he was on his way to Tbilisi.

Saakashvili said that the main aim of the Batumi action was to break Abashidze's political monopoly over the region. Abashidze "runs a one-man show" and "does not allow the opposition to campaign" in Ajaria, Saakashvili said.

"We want to change this tradition, and to show that Ajaria is part of Georgia," he continued. "It is our constitutional right to hold a peaceful rally there."

According to some political analysts in Tbilisi, Saakashvili's combative approach has succeeded in reframing the opposition's political agenda in Georgia. "Saakashvili's role in Georgian politics is that of an ice-breaker," said Ghia Nodia, who heads the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development. "He created a new pace for the political opposition."

However, Saakashvili's tactics have alienated moderate opposition leaders, including incumbent Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze and one-time speaker Zurab Zhvania, who lead the Burjanadze-Democrats bloc. Observers in Tbilisi say Saakashvili's penchant for radical tactics was a significant factor in the failure of opposition forces to forge a united front for the parliamentary campaign. "We are working together and we will work together, but we do have some tactical differences," Saakashvili admitted.

Some analysts see Saakashvili's radicalism as boosting his party's chances in the parliamentary election, while perhaps creating a liability for his own presidential prospects in 2005. "Saakashvili is too confrontational and he has an image of a radical, and politicians like that don't usually come to [power] through elections," Nodia said.

Saakashvili was once a protégé of Shevardnadze, serving as justice minister in his cabinet. He resigned that post in 2001, complaining that the president was not interested in promoting reforms and controlling rampant corruption. He said in recent years Shevardnadze has become preoccupied with retaining power. "A few years ago, Shevardnadze was certainly willing to institute some reforms," Saakashvili said. "What happened was his old conservative friends started to take over and he himself got scared."

The National Movement leader vows that, as has been the case during the campaign, he will stand ready to lead post-election protests if opposition forces feel the election results are fraudulent. "We have campaigned very hard," Saakashvili said, adding that his supporters will "fight against any kind of abuse of power and government attempts to hang on to power."

During his regular weekly radio interview October 27, Shevardnadze reiterated that security forces would react forcefully to any effort to mount unauthorized political demonstrations. He also cautioned that political parties "destined to lose the elections" might seek to sow discord by pointing to "mythical election fraud."

Given that both sides appear to be digging in, some opposition leaders now express concern that the election has the potential to spark widespread unrest. "If the authorities decide to counter peaceful demonstration with violence, reprisals and bloodshed, it would be tantamount to catastrophe for this government," cautioned Davit Gamkrelidze, the leader of New Rights party, a business-oriented party.