Survey in Azeri capital shows opposition gaining ground in elections

Text of report by Azerbaijani news agency Turan on 31st October

[Header] Elections-2000

The ADAM Centre for Social Research has conducted a sociological survey for the period of 21st-29th October 2000 in Baku about the forthcoming elections. Using questionnaires and a random selection method the centre interviewed over 18 of the electorate face-to-face and anonymously. Questions 1-3 were put to 500 respondents, among which:

- representatives of the private sector accounted for 25 per cent;

- representatives of the intelligentsia were 13 per cent;

- students were 12 per cent;

- refugees were 10 per cent;

- pensioners were 10 per cent;

- unemployed were 10 per cent;

- workers were 8 per cent;

- civil servants were 7 per cent;

- housewives were 5 per cent.

Age groups were as follows:

- 18-29 years, 20 per cent;

- 30-39 years, 20 per cent;

- 40-49 years, 25 per cent;

- 50-59 years, 20 per cent;

- 60-over 60, 15 per cent.

Fifty per cent of the interviewees were men and 50 per cent were women.

The margin of error in this survey is 3 per cent either way with 95.5 per cent reliability.

The questions ands answers were as follows:

Q 1. Which political party would you like to win in the parliamentary elections?

The Musavat Party, 24 per cent;

The New Azerbaijan Party, 20 per cent;

The Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, 7 per cent;

The Party for National Independence of Azerbaijan, 7 per cent;

The Liberal Party of Azerbaijan, 4 per cent;

The Communist Party of Azerbaijan, 3 per cent;

None, 10 per cent;

Difficult to answer, 12 per cent.

Five per cent of the respondents favoured the People's Front of Azerbaijan Party [PFAP]. Another 5 per cent favoured the PFAP and specifically mentioned [First Deputy Chairman] Ali Kerimov's name [reformist wing of the PFAP] while 2 per cent favoured the same party and mentioned [Deputy Chairman] Mirmahmud Fattayev's name [traditional wing of the PFAP]. No more than 1 per cent of the respondents favoured the remaining parties.

Q 2. What do you think about the possibility of free and fair elections in Azerbaijan?

It is currently impossible to hold fully free and fair elections in Azerbaijan because our society has not developed to the desired level yet, 34 per cent;

It is possible to hold free and fair elections in Azerbaijan if the authorities create the conditions for it, 43 per cent;

It is hard to say, 23 per cent.

Q 3. Do you think the parliamentary elections will be free and fair, or not?

Yes, 22 per cent;

No , 59 per cent;

It is hard to say, 19 per cent.

Q 4. Will you vote in the parliamentary elections? (1,348 people answered this questions)

Yes, 60.6 per cent;

No, 27.3 per cent;

I do not know, 12.1 per cent.

Q 5. Whom will you vote for in the parliamentary elections: candidates from the opposition; candidates from the ruling [New Azerbaijan] party; or, independent candidates? (Questions 5 and 6 were put to 817 people - those respondents who gave a positive answer to Question 4 and intended to vote)

Candidates from the opposition, 47 per cent;

Candidates from the ruling party, 22 per cent;

Independent candidates, 11 per cent;

Does not make any difference, 3 per cent;

It is hard to say, 17 per cent.

Q 6. Which political party will you vote for in the parliamentary elections?

The Musavat Party, 26.1 per cent;

The New Azerbaijan Party, 21 per cent;

The Party for National Independence of Azerbaijan, 7.5 per cent;

The Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, 6 per cent;

The Liberal Party of Azerbaijan, 3.2 per cent;

The Communist Party of Azerbaijan; 2 per cent;

None, 3.7 per cent;

It is hard to say, 17.1 per cent.

Five per cent of the respondents favoured the PFAP, another 4.3 per cent favoured the PFAP and specifically mentioned Ali Kerimov's name, and 2.3 per cent specifically mentioned Mirmahmud Fattayev's name.

Source: Turan news agency, Baku, in Russian 0920 gmt 31 Oct 00

BBC Mon TCU 311000 ha/ea

Posted October 31, 2000 © Eurasianet
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