The recent municipal elections in Azerbaijan were marred by "masses of
violations", but the government nevertheless allowed opposition members to
win seats in the municipalities so that it would be easier for the country
to join the Council of Europe, according to a report in the Azerbaijani
newspaper 'Zerkalo' on 15th December. However, geopolitical factors may be
more important in determining whether Azerbaijan joins the Council of
Europe or not. At the moment it looks as if the North Caucasus is Russia's
sphere of influence and the South Caucausus is the West's. Once Azerbaijan
is a member of the Council of Europe, the country will have to become more
democratic, the paper said. The following is the text of the report from
'Zerkalo' by J. Nasibov entitled "The municipal elections: an imitation on
the way to the Council of Europe?"

Azerbaijan imitating democratic elections to join Council of Europe, paper
says

Text of report from Azerbaijani newspaper 'Zerkalo' on 15th December by J.
Nasibov entitled "The municipal elections: an imitation on the way to the
Council of Europe?"

[Subhead] The opinion that the issue of Azerbaijan's admittance to this
structure will be seen in the light of geopolitics is being accentuated
The conduct of the municipal elections and the formation of local
self-government bodies on their basis, which is new to our country, has
been associated with Azerbaijan's admittance to the Council of Europe over
the last two years. The conduct of similar elections in Georgia became one
of the main arguments for that country's admittance to the Council of
Europe, which made the issue of municipal elections in Azerbaijan even more
topical.

The 12th December municipal elections, however, showed that the Azerbaijani
authorities were linking fair elections to admittance to the Council of
Europe only in words. Local and foreign observers "intercepted" masses of
violations, which could have had a direct impact on the election results.
Several conclusions can be drawn here.

Firstly, the Baku government has an interest in joining the Council of
Europe only in words. We should point out that any state joining the
Council of Europe assumes several obligations, the fulfilment of which is
being overseen by this European structure. In our domestic political
realities, only the European Court might give the Azerbaijani authorities
the kind of bloody nose that the social and political forces appealing to
this body want.

Secondly, the Azerbaijani authorities believe that (or maybe someone
explained to them) that the issue of Azerbaijan's admittance to the Council
of Europe will be examined only in the light of geopolitics. But for this
purpose, it is necessary to imitate the fulfilment of some requirements of
this structure. The municipal elections became part of the imitation
campaign. The inclusion of opposition representatives and independent
candidates in lists of municipal councils prepared in advance bolsters this
supposition even more (these facts are being spread by opposition and
independent observers at the elections).

Isa Gambar, chairman of the Musavat Party, is more inclined to the second
version, thinking that the Council of Europe will approach this issue from
a political point of view. However, Isa Gambar refused to predict the
Council of Europe's final assessment of the municipal elections and stated
that it would only be possible to say something definite about this after
managing to collect and analyse all the cases of falsifications and
violations in the elections. "We are still collecting information," the
Musavat chairman stressed.

His political opponent and deputy from the [ruling] New Azerbaijan Party,
Ziyafat Askerov, does not think that the municipalities will be a
determining factor in Azerbaijan's admittance to the Council of Europe.
"They will be only one link in this issue and this link might be positive
or with some shortcomings. The most important thing is that the Council of
Europe knows which path Azerbaijan has taken. This path is directed towards
the West and aimed at creating a law-governed state," said Askerov,
thinking that the municipal elections will have a positive influence on
Azerbaijan's admittance to the Council of Europe.

If we sum up these two opinions voiced by representatives of opposite
political camps in Azerbaijan, we can draw the conclusion that the second
(geopolitical) version is closer to the state of play in the South
Caucasian and Central Asian regions. An opinion is already forming that at
the current stage the Caucasus is roughly divided as follows: the South
Caucasus for the West and the USA and the North Caucasus for Russia. Not
everybody, however, agrees with this split in Moscow. For this reason,
Russia has lately been taking diverse steps which display the
dissatisfaction of the Russian Federation with such a sharing deal (we
should particularly point out the situation in Armenia, where the country's
pro-Russian forces have backed President [Robert] Kocharyan into a tight
corner). The West will take steps for its part to neutralize Russia's
efforts.

One of these steps is the admittance of some countries of the former USSR,
including Azerbaijan, to the Council of Europe. This will become the main
political course for the next few months. Various statements by the West,
which will probably criticize the latest elections in Azerbaijan, the human
rights situation in our country, etc., will only be side effects. One thing
is clear: joining the Council of Europe promotes the democratization
(although relatively) of the next elections.

Source: 'Zerkalo', Baku, in Russian 15 Dec 99 p2
BBC Mon TCU 151299/** sh/ek
Source: 'Zerkalo', Baku, in Russian 15 Dec 99 p2
BBC Mon TCU 151299/** sh/ek