The opposition Unity Party is stepping up its efforts to
cooperate more closely or even merge with the Liberal Socialist
Party of Azerbaijan (LSPA) and the Islamic Party of Azerbaijan
(IPA) and if its succeeds, its influence on internal processes
will "dramatically increase", an Azerbaijani newspaper comments.

It says that in cooperating with the LSPA, the party will tap
into supporters of ex-President Ayaz Mutallibov, who is
currently in exile in Moscow. The Unity Party also lays claim
to the Islamic electorate and if it merges with the IPA, which
has been discredited by the arrest of its leaders, the role of
religion will increase in politics. The following is the text
of the report by the Azerbaijani newspaper 'Zerkalo' on 13th
September entitled "The Unity Party is showing an interest in
Islamists and Liberal Socialists" by E. Garabalov

[Subhead] It is not ruled out that they will merge in the
long-term.

After barely surviving interparty slanging matches, the
Unity Party has stepped up its interparty negotiations with the
Islamic Party, which used to be in disgrace, and the Liberal
Socialist Party of Azerbaijan. A source in the Unity Party told
'Zerkalo' that priority was being given to negotiations with
the Islamists. It is assumed that an official signing ceremony
for a bilateral agreement between the two parties will take
place soon. The party did not hold a broad debate on the
negotiations with the LSPA, and the source does not rule out
that certain people in the party are dealing with this issue.

Observers think that Unity's interest in the above two
parties is fuelled on the one hand by its desire to rally
[ex-President] Ayaz Mutallibov's electorate, which is mainly
concentrated in Unity itself and the LSPA, as well as the
ex-president's "floating" followers, who do not see any party
that could be called pro-Mutallibov. The consolidation of Unity
and the LSPA could change the situation in that a force which
completely reflects the ex-president's interests could emerge
on the political arena, which will inevitably attract
supporters and sympathizers with the ex-president.

Haji Abdul, leader of the LSPA, who is fanatically devoted
to Mutallibov, is also interested in founding a strong "Ayaz
Mutallibov party". Observers think that he is ready to go for
closer cooperation and even a merger with the Unity Party to
implement this idea. Moreover, Unity leaders such as Tahir
Kerimli are now making statements about Mutallibov which smack
of repentance. As you may recall, as a national democrat,
Kerimli played a major role in toppling Mutallibov.

On the other hand, the Unity Party lays claim to the
Islamic electorate. Despite the resuscitation of the Islamic
Party, its positions have been strongly compromised by the
arrest of its leaders and ban on the party's activities. As a
result, the interest of religious circles in politics abated
for some time. And today in Azerbaijan, there is no obvious
political force that could act under the flag of Islam. It is
also less likely that the Islamic Party of Azerbaijan will turn
into a mass political organization. Not least because the
party's name is still associated with the stronghold of
pro-Iranian forces in Azerbaijan despite the change of
leadership. This has a negative influence on people.

It will be possible to get rid of this "complex" if the
IPA merges with the Unity Party. There is noticeable sympathy
for Iran in the latter's foreign policy, but no direct link
with Tehran has been proved. To all appearances, IPA leaders
will not be against merging with the Unity Party either. As a
result, the role of the religious factor in politics will
increase and they will also derive dividends from it. Besides
that, since the merger with the Union of Baku and Villages
[pro-Mutallibov movement founded by Haji Abdul], the Unity's
grounds to laying claim to the religious electorate have
increased. It is not that the population of the villages
adjoining Baku are distinguished by their religiosity, but that
such a merger might "open up" another region to the party, the
southern region, which is no less religious.

As a result, the Unity's chances to influence internal
political processes in Azerbaijan could dramatically increase.
And it seems that Mutallibov's fingerprint can be seen all over
this project.

Source: 'Zerkalo', Baku, in Russian 13 Sep 99 p6
BBC Mon TCU 130999 cal/ek