`Zerkalo' newspaper has analysed the results of the first phase
of the municipal elections campaign and says that the results
show that the opposition does have a chance of success. It says
that the situation does not appear as one-sided as it could,
looking at the number of representatives the individual parties
have on the territorial electoral commissions. The paper also
lists the parties it sees as being the main rivals in the
elections. The following is the text of report by Azerbaijani
newspaper 'Zerkalo' on 18th September entitled "Election
campaign enters second phase" by E. Garabalov
Subhead: The opposition can be satisfied with the first phase
results
The first phase of the election campaign has been
completed in Azerbaijan - territorial electoral commissions
have been formed. The results show that most opposition
parties' involvement [in the campaign] has justified itself.
Despite bureaucracy and artificial obstacles put in the way
path of the opposition representatives, not to mention
falsifications, about which all the opposition forces are
talking, the territorial electoral commissions do not look as
one-sided as they could be in the case of the whole
opposition's joint boycott, as was the case in the run-up to
last year's presidential elections.
We can mention only one case - Yurrdash [Compatriot]
Party, whose modest strength is a secret to no-one, has managed
to have four representatives in [territorial electoral]
commissions and this says a lot. Larger parties, e.g. the PNIA
[Party for National Independence of Azerbaijan] has
representatives in 17, while the PFAP [People's Front of
Azerbaijan Party] is in 28 territorial electoral commissions
etc.
This allows us to suppose that if it becomes more active,
the opposition can lay claim to a certain part of the municipal
"pie" in the next stages of the election campaign up to
positions of local government heads. This is quite possible in
the current situation.
The first phase results allow us to name the parties which
will be the main rivals in the elections.
The [ruling] New Azerbaijan Party [NAP]. The opposition
observers say that the NAP's strength is that it leans on
well-organized machinery - first of all the executive
authorities in the provinces. Afraid of their anger, some of
the electors, mainly the elderly, are ready to vote for anyone
to satisfy the powers that be. This category also covers those
who simply cannot resist direct pressure. The head of the PFAP
electoral headquarters, Alimammad Nuriyev, told 'Zerkalo' that
people who had expressed readiness to nominate themselves for
the opposition parties at the second stage of the election
campaign were being "recommended" to give up this intention,
otherwise they were threatened with dismissal or the dismissal
of their close relatives.
Simultaneously we cannot but admit that some of the
population associate Heydar Aliyev with stability in the
country and hope for a thriving economy. And people of this
opinion can be found not only among the elderly but also among
young people.
The PFAP. To all appearances, this party has the greatest
chance of all the opposition parties. The results of the first
phase of the election campaign point to this. The party has a
number of advantages.
First, the party's name is associated with the name of the
organization which headed the movement that led Azerbaijan to
independence.
Second, despite of all blows raining down on the party
from the authorities and pseudo-allies, the PFAP leader
[ex-president Abulfaz Elchibey] preserves his authority among
his faithful supporters.
Third, a young team of leades has formed inside the PFAP
and they managed to organize their work correctly and convince
the sober part of the electorate that they should not identify
those who represented the People's Front in power with the
present-day PFAP leaders.
The PNIA also has very convincing prospects. The election
campaign's first phase has showed that the party can lay claim
to wide support from the electors. In addition, the experience
of the presidential elections allows the PNIA to carry out
correct propaganda among the population. Thus one can expect
that after the party's October congress it will take an
official decision to enter the election campaign. It seems to
us that the congress cannot but take such a decision after a
successful start.
Musavat. The party's advantage is a goup of parties which
are regarded as pro-Musavat ones. Thus, Musavat can be a real
rival to the first two opposition parties.
Another possible option is that these four parties will
fight not each for itself but that the three opposition parties
unite to compete with the NAP. This could seriously complicate
the NAP's task to preserve power in the provinces. Some recent
"in camera" meetings point to such a possibility. However, the
opposition has not managed to unite so far in spite of all the
talk about unity.
Source: 'Zerkalo', Baku, in Russian 18 Sep 99 p8
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