By Liz Fuller RFERL
 
On 17 September, the population of Kazakhstan will elect
members of the Senate--the upper house of the parliament--in
the first round of parliamentary elections. A second round of
voting, for the 77 seats in the Mazhilis, the lower house, is
scheduled for 10 October.

The runup to the elections has been dominated by the
uncertainty of whether one of Kazakhstan's most prominent and
charismatic opposition figures, former Premier Akezhan
Kazhegeldin, would be permitted to run as a candidate. A 47-
year-old economist, Kazhegeldin presided over Kazakhstan's
privatization program for three years before resigning as
premier in October 1997, reportedly for health reasons. In
1998, he founded a political party to defend the interests of
Kazakhstan's industrialists and businessmen and in October of
that year declared his intention to contend the pre-term
January 1999 presidential election.

Kazhegeldin accused incumbent President Nursultan
Nazarbaev of authoritarianism, nepotism, and indifference to
human rights. He advocated creating a coalition government to
reverse the economic downturn, rising unemployment, and the
increasing impoverishment of the population, trends that he
predicted could result in mass social unrest. Kazhegeldin,
however, was barred from running in the presidential
elections on the grounds that he committed "an administrative
offense" by participating in an unsanctioned demonstration.
The OSCE and the U.S. subsequently termed the poll, in which
Nazarbaev was re-elected by almost 80 percent of voters,
"deeply flawed" and falling far short of OSCE standards.
In March, Kazakhstan's parliament adopted an election
law that introduced 10 seats in the Mazhilis that are to be
contested under the proportional system. But both the OCSE
and opposition parties criticized other provisions of that
legislation, including the $1,000 registration fee for
parliamentary candidates and the ban on persons running for
office who have committed an "administrative offense." The
parliament in June approved amendments proposed by President
Nazarbaev reducing the registration fee and abolishing the
ruling on administrative offenses.

Kazhegeldin's Republican People's Party of Kazakhstan
(KRKhP) was formally registered by the Ministry of Justice in
July and announced it would contend the Mazhilis elections.
But in April, the Prosecutor-General's Office had brought
charges of tax evasion and illegal acquisition of real estate
in Belgium against the former premier, who had left
Kazakhstan late in 1998. Kazhegeldin has denied those
charges, which he terms politically motivated.
On 9 September, the deadline for registration,

Kazakhstan's Central Electoral Commission refused to register
Kazhegeldin's candidacy because the charges of tax evasion
against him had not been lifted. He headed the KRKhP list of
10 candidates for the 10 party-list seats in the Mazhilis.
His party responded that it will boycott the elections. Six
of its members, however, are to run in single-mandate
constituencies.

On 10 September, Russia police detained Kazhegeldin on
his arrival at Moscow's Sheremetevo airport, saying the
Kazakh authorities were demanding his extradition.
Kazhegeldin was hospitalized after suffering a suspected
heart attack but told RFE/RL from his hospital bed that he
traveled to Moscow en route for Kazakhstan following
published assurances by Kazakhstan's ambassador in Washington
that he is free to return to Kazakhstan, and that no legal
measures will be taken against him if he does so. On 15
September, Kazakhstan's Prosecutor-General Yurii Khitrin
announced that the charges against Kazhegeldin have been
dropped "on humanitarian grounds" and that he is free to
return to Kazakhstan.

Kazhegeldin's detention sparked protest demonstrations
in Almaty and was denounced by prominent opposition figures,
including Communist Party leader Serikbolsyn Abdildin. The
Communist Party, together with the Orleu (Progress) movement
and the Association of Russian, Slavic, and Cossack
Associations, is aligned with the KRKhP in the Republika
election bloc formed in July. Those parties have pledged not
to compete against one another in the single-mandate
constituencies.

A total of 565 candidates from 10 parties have
registered to contend the parliamentary poll. Russian
observers predict that the pro-presidential Otan party and
the Civic Party, which claims to represent businessmen and
industrialists, will garner the lion's share of the vote in
the Mazhilis, followed by the Communist Party. In the Senate
elections, 33 candidates will contest 16 seats.
The removal of the threat posed by Kazhegeldin and his
party does not necessarily guarantee a decisive election
victory for Otan, however. (Otan's proclaimed objective is to
replace the existing government with one both willing to and
capable of implementing Nazarbaev's economic policies.)
Kazhegeldin's supporters can vote for whichever opposition
party they consider has the best chance of competing with
Otan, or they can vote for no one in protest.

How many are likely to choose the latter option is
difficult to predict. The political situation in Kazakhstan
is characterized by a high degree of resentment among the
impoverished majority of the population against an oligarchy
centered on Nazarbaev. That oligarchy, many observers both in
Kazakhstan and abroad believe, is prepared to defy the
international community by rigging the elections in order to
cling to power.

But that resentment is accompanied by widespread
political passivity. To date, popular resentment has found an
outlet in protest demonstrations against employers' or local
authorities' failure to pay wages and pensions rather than in
support for opposition parties. Indeed, the results of a
recent opinion poll showed that more than half the
respondents could not name even a single political party. One
in five said they do not support any political party, while
Otan received the highest approval rating with 17 percent.