Text of report by Iranian radio from Mashhad on 12th December

[First presenter] When the way is being paved for multiparty elections in
Tajikistan, experts are looking at the chances of success of the political
parties in the country. For example, the centre for the study and analysis
of opinion polls of the East has carried out a poll in this field.
According to it, 42 per cent of those polled supported a single party
system, 37 per cent favoured a multi-party system and 4.9 per cent were
against the existance of any political party. This poll determined the
popularity of the political parties in Tajikistan: 28 per cent support the
Communist Party, 12 per cent the Democratic Party, 11 per cent the People's
Democratic Party and 5 per cent the Islamic Rebirth Party of Tajikistan.

[Second presenter] Taking into account the pecularities of the countries in
Asia, including what is happening in the Central Asian countries, political
experts on Tajik affairs have given high success ratings for the ruling
party, the People's Democratic Party, in the upcoming [parliamentary]
elections of Tajikistan. The setting up of the Movement of National Unity
and Revival of Tajikistan, which includes pro-government parties and
organizations, and which enjoys privileges in publicising, has increased
the chance of the ruling party in political campaigns. The Communist Party
of Tajikistan enjoys more support but due to the lack of active work and
resoluteness of its leadership, according to the experts, will not achieve
the needed success. On the other hand, the party is taking steps with the
hope of reviving the former Soviet Union which is not in the interest of
Tajikistan's sovereignty.

[First presenter] Another main contender in the election campaign is the
United Tajik Opposition (UTO). Internal discord in the UTO, the stance of
the Democratic Party, the leaving of the Lal-i Badakhshon society from its
ranks, and the lack of a specific election programme, will go against the
UTO and, according to experts, the UTO will not achieve a notable success
in the parliamentary elections just as in the presidential elections which
were also not successful for the UTO. An official of the UTO, who did not
want to be named, described regionalism as the main factor for the lack of
unity in its ranks.

[Second presenter] According to experts, parties and organizations like the
Socialist Party, the Justice Party, the Congress of [Popular] Unity of
Tajikistan, the National Movement of Tajikistan and the Lal-i Badakhshon
society will have opportunities and successes in specific regions. In view
of the current situation in Tajikistan, political experts are forecasting
the possible emergence of a new union of a group of political parties.
Experts say that as no party could stand against the government in
Tajikistan during the fighting and were forced to set up a union, a party
or a group can hardly do anything alone during election campaigns. That is
to say the first word will be for unity.

Source: Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mashhad, in Persian 1600 gmt
12 Dec 99
BBC Mon CAU 141299/** AJBA/MI