This summer Central Asia has once again become immersed in water politics. The flashpoint is the Dostyk Canal, a giant waterway that connects Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. A dispute surrounding the use of the canal’s water has raised tension and has threatened crops.

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan precipitated the dispute by arbitrarily altering the water flow. Their actions have already devastated the cotton crop in southern Kazakhstan.

Central Asia’s agricultural economies are largely dependent on irrigation. The region’s five countries -- Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – must share scarce water resources. But of these, only two countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, control the sources.

While politicians have squabbled over water rights, farmers have suffered. In early July, the water flow to southern Kazakhstan slowed to a virtual trickle - one quarter of the amount needed to sustain the water-intensive cotton crop. Local analysts predicted that the diminished water flow in Kazakhstan’s southern district -- of the necessary 80 cubic meters per second, Kazakhstan was only receiving 20 -- would result in a loss of 15 to 20 percent of this year’s harvest.

Tajikistan reportedly caused the crisis by releasing too much water (700 million cubic meters) from its Karakum reservoir without warning its downstream neighbors. The move seriously curtailed the water supply in southern Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan, water-rich but otherwise poor, unilaterally reduced the flow to southern Kazakhstan in retaliation for Kazakhstan’s failure to supply coal under the swap agreements.

By July 15, the water level had doubled, rising from about 20 to over 40 cubic meters. But that is only about half of what the Kazakh farmers require to irrigate their crops. Kazakhstan lobbied Uzbekistan for more water in meetings held July 15-17. But Uzbekistan refused to increase the flow, saying that the exact amounts should have been worked out in February -- not in July. Kazakh and Uzbek experts reportedly disagreed on how much water was due in Kazakhstan's Maktaaral District in exchange for coal.

Kazakhstani officials accused Uzbekistan of reneging on the schedule of water use approved by an inter-state water commission. According to the agreement, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan agreed to a swap of resources -- water for electricity and coal. But the Uzbeks denied that they were shortchanging Kazakhstan on water. In an apparent reprisal, KazakhTeleCom on July 17 stopped relaying international telephone calls from Uzbekistan.

After those talks broke down, Kazakhstan turned to Tajikistan. Talks begun on July 18 produced quick results. Tajikistan upped the flow from 46 cubic meters of water to 70 cubic meters per second from its Karakum reservoir -- enough to irrigate cotton fields. However, Tajikistan will not be able to sustain the higher flow for long, perhaps only until early August.

In addition to the water-usage dispute, Tajikistan and other areas of Central Asia are suffering from drought conditions. The UN-funded World Food Program and Food and Agriculture Organization estimate that the drought has already ruined almost $3 million in crops, threatening to create widespread hunger and malnutrition.

The recent dispute underscores the importance of water resources in an arid region with agricultural economies. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Central Asian nations have repeatedly feuded over water resources. For example, Uzbekistan in 1997 reduced the water supply to Kazakhstan by 70 percent, threatening crops and provoking riots before the full flow was restored. [For background, see EurasiaNet Environment archive.]

The dispute also shows that the current energy/resource swap arrangements contain a serious flaw. They would appear to permit one country to hold their downstream neighbors hostage on political whims.

While Western experts have recommended a region-wide water management system, the countries so far have been unable to reach consensus on a manageable and equitable arrangement. [For background, see EurasiaNet Environment archive.] Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have opted for bilateral solutions and have boycotted attempts by international organizations to mediate. Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan have demonstrated more flexibility on the issue. But the bottom line is that all countries in the region must agree in order for a management system to work.

Environmental experts have linked the shrinking Aral Sea to changes in the region's climate. The sea’s declining water level, as well as the desertification of surrounding territory, is a contributing factor in making drought a more common natural phenomenon. While certain countries can control the taps, none can control the weather. And until they realized they must all work together, regional conditions -- both political and environmental -- may continue to deteriorate.

Editor's Note: Bea Hogan is a journalist who is an expert on Central Asian political and economic affairs.

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Posted August 2, 2000 © Eurasianet
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