KYRGYZ AUTHORITIES CONCERNED ABOUT RETALIATORY RAIDS AGAINST CENTRAL ASIAN RESERVOIRS
Beatrice Hogan: 10/16/01

The drive towards the Popan Reservoir in southeastern Kyrgyzstan near the Uzbek border is a pleasant stretch: snow-capped mountains frame rolling fields as animals graze along the roadside. The gigantic man-made lake, formed by the damming of the Akbura River, is a prime destination for picnickers. And in light of the US-led anti-terrorism campaign, the reservoir now is also a potential national security hazard.

The importance of the reservoir is clear. The waters contained in its basin nourish agriculture in the Ferghana Valley, Central Asia’s breadbasket. Given its economic importance, the reservoir can be considered a potential target of a terrorist raid. US raids against Afghanistan have heightened concerns in neighboring Central Asian countries, including Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, about potential retaliatory attacks, carried out by the Taliban and Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda network. [For more information, see Eurasia Insight.]

Taliban leaders have declared a jihad against Uzbekistan because of Tashkent’s decision to allow the United States to use Uzbek military bases in Washington’s campaign to oust the Taliban, who control much of Afghanistan, and hunt down bin Laden. US air superiority excludes the possibility that the Taliban could mount a military offensive against Central Asian states. Much more feasible, however, would be selective raids against strategic targets.

The importance of the reservoirs to Uzbek stability is a fact not lost on Bin Laden or his confederates. In 1998, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which has received training and support from the Taliban and bin Laden, threatened to blow up a reservoir in Tajikistan. Other reservoirs in the region could now be targeted.

The Ferghana Valley would be particularly vulnerable to such a terror attacks. Straddling Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the fertile area suffers from overcrowding. High unemployment, widespread poverty and repression of religious freedom combine to stoke frustration. The IMU insurgency has its roots in the profound feeling of discontent harbored by many valley residents.

With the Popan Reservoir sitting in an area of high seismic activity, authorities have long worried about the possible consequences of an earthquake. A former foreign-service officer familiar with current conditions described the threat of an earthquake-induced dam burst as "a tragedy waiting to happen." Soviet scientists who designed the system, this expert says, predicted that in a serious earthquake "everyone within a 15 kilometer radius would be dead." A terrorist attack that caused the dam to burst could potentially match an earthquake’s destructive power.

The Popan Reservoir, like scores of dams throughout Central Asia, shows the scars from years of neglect and lack of funding. When the Soviet Union collapsed, centralized funding also disappeared, leaving the newly independent states responsible for maintenance and repairs. So far, the question of the Popan and other trans-boundary reservoirs has aroused plenty of harsh feelings, but no consensus.

Some feel that Kyrgyzstan should fund repairs because the structures lie on its territory; others argues that the downstream states – including Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan – use much of the reservoir’s water and should contribute for its upkeep. So far, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have worked out swap deals in which coal and gas is exchanged for water. But Kyrgyzstan feels shortchanged – even though it’s responsible for factoring the cost of repairs into its exchanges – and has threatened to start demanding cash from its downstream neighbors. Uzbekistan dispatched rancorous diplomatic notes in early October condemning the Kyrgyz attempt to charge neighboring countries for water, and threatening to cut off gas supplies to Kyrgyzstan.

Meanwhile, physical infrastructures of public works throughout these former Soviet states continue to deteriorate. The reservoirs are one node of a vast, inefficient water network featuring canals that lose more than half of the water they transport, locks without reliable measuring devices, and broken-down pumps that spew contaminated drinking water.

On a recent tour of the Popan Reservoir, chief engineer Jonabek Baziev said the reservoir, which was completed in 1984, can hold 260 billion cubic meters of water. In the control room, Soviet-era machinery blinked and hummed, tracking the dam’s functions, and measuring the inflow and outflow of water.

In late spring, when mountain snow melts and rivers swell, the water places a tremendous amount of stress on the deteriorating dam infrastructure. During this crucial period, Baziev said he must closely monitor the dam for signs of structural distress. "That’s when it gets really dangerous around here," he said. In the coming months, though, checking to make sure the floodgates are holding firm may not be Baziev’s greatest worry.

Editor’s Note: Beatrice Hogan, a Pew Fellow in International Journalism, spent a month in Central Asia earlier in 2001. Her research focused on water-use-related issues.

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Posted October 16, 2001 © Eurasianet
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