Azerbaijan: Politicians Gear Up for Next Year's Presidential Election

Azerbaijan's next presidential election is more than a year away, but the country's political players are already gearing up for the coming campaign.

Local analysts believe incumbent President Ilham Aliyev will win reelection easily in November 2008. The leaders of the governing Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP) clearly feel the same way. YAP Executive Secretary Ali Akhmadov says the party has no doubts in President Aliyev's "overwhelming victory." Individuals who rely on government salaries are reportedly being called on to back up that prediction. On September 11, Education Minister Misir Mardanov called on Baku teachers "to loudly promote, especially in the election year, all the successes of Azerbaijan that were reached under Ilham Aliyev's leadership," local media reported.

In response, Azerbaijan's relatively weak opposition argues that conditions for a free campaign do not exist. As it has for earlier elections, it is considering a possible election boycott. At the same time, newspapers close to the opposition Azadlig (Freedom) bloc – which comprises the Popular Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA), Liberal Party and the Citizen and Development Party – and Musavat Party are mulling the possibility of putting up a unified opposition candidate.

In remarks to EurasiaNet, Ali Kerimli, the PFPA leader, argued that media restrictions and the lack of a strong rule of law hamper the party's ability to take part in the vote. "The Azadlig bloc wants to participate in the presidential elections if authorities create democratic conditions," Kerimli said. "However, if nothing changes we will not take part in this show and will boycott the elections."

Musavat Party leader Isa Gambar has called for changes in the election code that would guarantee "parity of the authorities and the opposition" in district electoral commissions, the Turan news agency reported on October 1.

Both Kerimli and Gambar said they are ready to discuss the possibility of electoral cooperation in the presidential vote, including an agreement on a single opposition candidate. The two opposition forces entered into an alliance for the 2005 parliamentary elections, but the spirit of cooperation evaporated soon after the balloting. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

For its part, the government maintains that it is not worried by the idea of an opposition boycott. "Participation in, or a boycott of the presidential elections are the personal problems of the opposition leaders," Ali Hasanov, head of the presidential administration's political department, told journalists recently. Hasanov put the size of the opposition electorate at about 10 percent of Azerbaijan's population, which is estimated at over 8 million. "There is no force in Azerbaijan that able to decide the elections' results by using a boycott."

Central Election Commission Chairman Mazahir Panahov has also dismissed the idea. "The way to power in [the] democratic world [lies] through election[s]," Panahov said. The commission boss pointed to the provision of new, fully equipped buildings for more than 60 of Azerbaijan's 125 electoral commissions and the alleged absence of restrictions on accreditation for domestic and international observers as signs that the country's electoral system is up to snuff, Day.az reported on September 17.

Meanwhile, the Venice Commission of the Council of Europe is continuing its consultations with the government about election code modifications, including steps to reduce the YAP's dominance of election commissions. (Currently, all chairpersons as well as one-third of district commissions' nine members are controlled by the governing party.) The US Ambassador in Baku, Anne Derse, has backed the concept of making adjustments, telling journalists on October 1 that such changes "will affect the situation in a positive way." The next round of consultations is scheduled for mid-October.

An October 1 petition delivered to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe by opposition leader Eldar Namazov, a potential presidential candidate, calls on the assembly to push for free and fair elections next year.

In public, the government has consistently maintained that it will not introduce any changes to the election code. Parliament's autumn agenda contains no discussions on the topic.

Even with election code changes, local analysts do not see President Aliyev having the kind of weaknesses that potential opposition candidates could exploit. "Opposition leaders are sitting in their dusty offices in Baku, while Ilham Aliyev has traveled to dozens of regions and has constantly met with people . . . The government is investing hundred millions of dollars in infrastructure improvement. New industrial facilities are being established in the regions, [and] road conditions are improving," commented Ilgar Mammadov, a Baku-based independent political analyst.

By ignoring the regions, Mammadov continued, the opposition risks missing a huge chunk of the electorate. "They only complain to international organizations that they cannot hold rallies in the center of Baku, and ask for parity in the election commissions," he said. "It is impossible to win the elections with such an attitude. There are presidential elections in the US in 2008 as well. [But] see how much American candidates are traveling throughout the country, and meeting with people."

Elhan Shahinoglu, director of Baku's Atlas political research center, shares this opinion. "Dozens of large, new facilities now under construction will be inaugurated in the election year, including new metro stations in Baku, traffic bridges and roads, airports in several cities, hospitals, schools and so on. Of course, Ilham Aliyev will be cutting red ribbons at all these places and it will help increase his popularity," Shahinoglu said.

A candidate who represents Azerbaijan's growing number of Islamic faithful could potentially alter that scenario, both analysts believe, but without posing a serious challenge to President Aliyev. For now, continued Shahinoglu, "[t]he opposition is too weak to change the situation domestically, while another agenda [energy and security] is dominating the West now towards Azerbaijan."

Nor is an opposition boycott likely to grab the international community's attention, Mammadov added. "International organizations have never welcomed the boycott idea, so it is not going to get sympathy this time, either."