New Study Assesses US Security Assistance to Uzbekistan, Afghanistan

A new report issued by the Rand Corporation assesses the effectiveness of US security assistance to "repressive states" in promoting Washington's democratization goals. The report finds that aid to Uzbekistan has had "disheartening" results. Meanwhile, security assistance to Afghanistan "has somewhat improved the accountability and human rights practices of Afghan police forces," the report stated.

Uzbekistan and Afghanistan are two of the four countries studied in the report, titled Securing Tyrants or Fostering Reform? The other countries examined in-depth are El Salvador and Pakistan.

US security cooperation with Uzbekistan "developed significantly" following the Soviet collapse in 1991, the report stated. Initial cooperation efforts, such as the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, focused on preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, both nuclear and biological. Following the September 11 terrorism tragedy in 2001, bilateral security ties took a quantum leap forward, underscored by the establishment of an American air base at Karshi-Khanabad. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Beyond direct military aid, the United States began providing funding for programs covering counter-terrorism, border control, counter-proliferation, as well as legal and judicial reform, the report said.

Many assistance programs were curtailed or halted altogether due to a dramatic downturn in bilateral relations, precipitated by the Andijan events of May 2005. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. During the summer of 2005, the Uzbek government evicted American forces from the Karshi-Khanabad base, and relations have remained in a deep freeze ever since. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The report noted that US security assistance provided from 2001-2005 had no discernable effect in improving Uzbekistan's performance in the areas of human rights, democratization and transparency. "The record is disheartening," the report stated. A US government official cited in the report characterized Uzbekistan as an "oligarchy and kleptocracy." Some programs, mainly those aimed at counter-proliferation, achieved a limited measure of success. But those designed to enhance counter-terrorism capabilities may have been counterproductive.

"US counter-terrorism assistance to Uzbek internal security forces must be questioned, as some Uzbek counter-terrorism units are also structures that harass and persecute political opponents of the regime," said the report, which was released January 4.

"Insofar as the United States plans to continue (or, in the future, restart) programs in Uzbekistan, it should take steps now to reevaluate and adjust some forms of assistance, even as it puts an end to others," the report continued.

The report cautions that even regime change in Tashkent might not create a political climate that would render US security assistance better able to promote democratization. "The United States should be prepared to assist a future Uzbek regime in creating effective, transparent and accountable internal security forces if the atmosphere proves conducive," the report said.

In evaluating Afghanistan, the report said American security aid yielded positive results "because the United States and other states had some leverage in building a new Afghan National Police and Ministry of Interior." The improved human rights record of government security forces was mitigated by the fact that President Hamid Karzai's administration has only a limited ability to project its authority in the country. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"The vast majority of serious human rights abuses in the country are committed by insurgent groups such as the Taliban and warlord militias," the report emphasized. It added that despite the gains in the observance of human rights, "there is little evidence of an improvement in the [crime-fighting] effectiveness of Afghan internal security forces." The report urged continued US support for capacity building of the Afghan justice system, as well as an expansion of efforts to eliminate warlordism.

As for Pakistan, the report found "little evidence that the US government has to date paid significant attention to the implications of its security assistance to – and cooperation with – Pakistan for the improvement of accountability and human rights."

The New York-based Open Society Institute sponsored the report, which was written under the auspices of the International Security and Defense Policy Center within Rand's National Security Research Division. OSI had no control over the report's content. EurasiaNet operates under the auspices of OSI.