Two Reports on Afghanistan's Reconstruction Raise Concern About Future Stability

Two studies on Afghanistan's reconstruction process raise concerns that the existing state-building framework may be inadequate to stabilize the war-ravaged country. The policy papers, published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argue that a stronger international presence is needed in Afghanistan, and that more attention should be paid to regional stabilization efforts.

One of the studies - Rebuilding Afghanistan: Fantasy versus Reality - suggests the Afghan reconstruction goal - namely the country's development as a secular, multi-ethnic and democratic state - is unrealistic at present. The report's authors, Marina Ottaway and Anatol Lieven, say Afghanistan's recent history of incessant conflict make only "the avoidance of major armed conflicts [and] the security of main trade routes" reasonable goals.

Ottaway and Lieven assert that "the Afghan state is a recent, partly colonial creation that has never commanded the full loyalty of its citizens." They say that a large international military force in Afghanistan will be crucial to stabilization of the country, adding that, so far, the world community has been reluctant to make such a commitment. In order to minimize inter-ethnic tension, economic assistance efforts should be decentralized, allowing for the distribution of aid directly to Afghanistan's regions.

The other Carnegie study - Preventing New Afghanistans: A Regional Strategy for Reconstruction - examines the broader context for Afghan reconstruction. The report's author, Martha Brill Olcott, emphasizes regional economic development as the key to stabilization. First, the international community must act to demilitarize Afghan society and eradicate poppy cultivation. Denying Islamic radicals access to arms and a source of income from drug trafficking would go a long way towards eliminating the terrorism threat in the region. Concurrently, the international community should vigorously promote market reforms in Afghanistan and neighboring countries, especially Uzbekistan.

"Uzbekistan lies at the center," Olcott writes. "All of Central Asia would benefit from Uzbekistan's economic recovery and from development of a regional market."

Steadily rising living standards in the region would reduce the attraction of radical Islamic ideas. Unfortunately, Uzbekistan is proving an uncooperative ally in the stabilization effort. Uzbek President Islam Karimov, evidently feeling that an isolationist strategy offers the best protection against the spread of instability to his country, has been only minimally cooperative in opening a key Uzbek-Afghan border crossing to facilitate aid shipments. The Uzbek leader also shows no inclination to embrace long-needed economic reforms.

The country "must reconcile itself to its Islamic past," Olcott writes, lest religious dissidents become symbols of its broadly repressive regime. She urges American lawmakers to match military support for Uzbekistan with requisite social and economic reform, including a convertible currency and commitments to free speech. Any other solution, she warns, could arm Uzbekistan into expansionism or heighten the risk that Islamists will find a new power base there.

Even as opinions vary on how quickly Afghanistan can become an outward-looking democracy, there is broad consensus among Central Asia experts that Karimov's policies are not helping the chances for regional stabilization.

Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani journalist and author of two books on extremism in the region, says Karimov's action on humanitarian aid shipments is indicative of Uzbekistan's obstructionist potential. The Uzbek president angered Western diplomats by delaying the opening of the Friendship Bridge connecting Uzbek and Afghan territory, thereby frustrating humanitarian assistance distribution in northern Afghanistan.

Barnett Rubin, an Afghanistan scholar who helped develop the United Nations reconstruction plan for Afghanistan, characterized Uzbek behavior as "a setback" in American efforts to promote stability. "Afghan reconstruction will be helped by stability in the neighboring region, so reform that promotes stability is positive," he says.

Rubin, who directs the Center on International Cooperation at New York University, maintains that Afghan reconstruction will not succeed or fail based on a single factor. But reform in Uzbekistan would send a signal to the desperately poor people in the country's Ferghana Valley region, Central Asia's agricultural heartland and currently a hotbed of social and economic discontent.

Karimov's continuing crackdown on basic human rights, especially freedom of speech and religious expression, creates an open challenge to the United States' moral authority to lead the anti-terrorism campaign. Since September 11, US leaders have been reluctant to exert pressure on Karimov to ease up on the crackdown. Uzbekistan has helped insulate itself from criticism by granting US forces access to military facilities at Khanabad. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

There are recent indications that some US political leaders are disenchanted with Uzbekistan's conduct. On January 8, Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-Connecticut) met with Karimov and stated that US economic assistance could be tied to Uzbekistan's human rights record. "The state of democracy and human rights matters to us, and unless Uzbekistan continues to move in that direction there will be limits on the support that we can give," Lieberman said in Tashkent.

Olcott supports such rhetoric. "Uzbekistan need not be lost, nor go down Afghanistan's or even Pakistan's road, if Washington is careful in its relations with Tashkent," she writes. But Rashid cautions that US President George W. Bush's administration may not fully share the view expressed by Lieberman. Bush Administration policy appears to be dominated by defense and strategic considerations, Rashid said. Administration criticism of Uzbek domestic policies is likely to remain muted as long as the United States desires to maintain troops in Uzbekistan.