Armenian President Has No Plans to Leave Politics

President Robert Kocharian's disclosure that he plans to remain active in politics after his term ends in 2008 has prompted speculation about the future shape of Armenia's political landscape.

On December 16, in an interview with three pro-government television stations, President Kocharian indicated clearly that he does not envisage retiring from politics. "I am not going to become the youngest pensioner of Armenia," commented the 53-year-old Kocharian, who has served as Armenia's president since 1998. "Life is just starting and it will be just starting then."

Kocharian declined to reveal specifics, but the implication that the Armenian leader would remain politically active after vacating his post in February 2008 gave fresh impetus to media speculation about his plans. The most popular point of view is that Kocharian may seek the post of prime minister, a post that by then will have expanded powers, under constitutional amendments introduced in November 2006. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In a December 26 commentary, the opposition newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak suggested that if the Republican Party, part of Armenia's governing coalition and headed by Prime Minister Andranik Margarian and Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian, wins the majority of votes in the parliamentary elections, Sarkisian could be named prime minister. The commentary envisaged a scenario in which Sarkisian would then ask Kocharian to take over his position as prime minister if Sarkisian chooses to run for president in 2008.

The fact that Kocharian does not have a party affiliation poses a sizeable obstacle to this scheme, some observers argue. They point to the failure of the president to censure the new Prosperous Armenia party for its widespread charitable activities – decried by many as vote-buying – as proof that the Republican Party cannot be certain of Kocharian's long-term support.

Such speculations went even further after a New Year's party for journalists hosted by the president on December 26. The individual who will become president in 2008, Kocharian told reporters in response to a question, "will not be the person you think about." To date, Defense Minister Sarkisian has been widely discussed as Kocharian's preferred successor. The president's words, however, have been taken as evidence that he now might favor another candidate.

But if so, Kocharian is keeping that information to himself. Publicly, the president still speaks favorably of the Republican Party. During his December 16 interview. Kocharian praised the party as an "experienced political force." Other parties with which Kocharian said it would be possible to cooperate were ARF Dashnakstutiun and the United Labor Party, both members of the ruling government coalition or loyal to it, and the new party Bargavach Hayastan, or Prosperous Armenia.

Prosperous Armenia, founded and funded by millionaire Gagik Tsarukian, has gained considerable popularity during the last year thanks in large part to charitable activities undertaken by a foundation of the same name. (Political parties themselves are forbidden from doing charitable work). The party commanded the support of 22 percent of 663 Yerevan residents surveyed in November 2006 by the APR Group, a market research and opinion polling firm. The party outstripped by 17 percentage points the runner-up Republican Party, the daily newspaper Aravot reported on November 29.

Many observers have debated whether these charitable activities are a type of "election bribe." In his interview, however, Kocharian stated that Armenian legislation has not yet drawn a boundary between such acts of charity and an "election bribe." Prime Minister Margarian, as the leader of a rival party, has taken a stronger view. During a December 22 meeting with reporters, Margarian noted that the benefits offered by Prosperous Armenia constituted only "0.001 percent of that brought by the government."

Speculations are numerous as to why Kocharian has not attempted to curtail Prosperous Armenia's charitable activities as a show of loyalty to his long-time allies in the Republican Party. Most observers argue that Kocharian wants to have additional options at his disposal for a political career upon leaving office.

For now, politicians are mostly reluctant to comment on Kocharian's statements, saying that much will depend on the actual results of the 2007 parliamentary elections. "Of course, Kocharian's words are orders to officials to act in favor of parties he would like to see in the parliament," the December 19 issue of the daily Haykakan Zhamanak quoted Stepan Demirchian, leader of the opposition People's Party of Armenia, as saying. "However, only time will show what in reality will happen."