EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - US Envoy Cautions that Window Could Close on a Karabakh Settlement

EURASIA INSIGHT

US ENVOY CAUTIONS THAT WINDOW COULD CLOSE ON A KARABAKH SETTLEMENT

Kenan Aliyev 1/14/02

Ambassador Rudolf Perina, the top US diplomat responsible for promoting a Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement, says current geopolitical conditions are well suited for a deal. At the same time, Perina cautions that the window of opportunity could quickly close.

Perina, the US Special Negotiator for Eurasian Conflicts, says the United States now feels a sense of urgency to resolve Karabakh’s status, driven in large part by Washington’s overall response to the September 11 terrorist attacks. According to US thinking, the elimination of long-standing sources of regional instability, such as the Karabakh question, would boost the anti-terrorism campaign. Accordingly, Perina said that during a November visit to the region he urged Armenian President Robert Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Heidar Aliyev to reevaluate their negotiating positions, taking into account the impact of September 11 on geopolitics.

"I believe these events changed the world in some way," Perina said during a January 10 address in Washington. "On September 11 we entered the post-post-cold war era. The relevance of this to the region and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is that this is a post-cold-war era conflict and it should have been resolved in that era. I think we going to a new era now and it has implications for this conflict."

Karabakh negotiations are currently stalemated, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan doggedly sticking to long-standing negotiating positions. Armenia refuses to accept any arrangement that leaves Karabakh under Azerbaijani jurisdiction. Baku, meanwhile, has offered Karabakh broad autonomy, but insists that the territory remain a constituent part of Azerbaijan.

Perina said that the September 11 attacks helped refocus international attention on promoting a Karabakh settlement. "I think there is a window of opportunity here to resolve these conflicts. But if we don’t utilize [it] there is a danger that the world will move on to these new problems and priorities," he said.

"If it seems that the parties really are not willing to make the hard choices themselves that are necessary to resolve [the conflict] the world does start loosing interest," Perina added.

A breakthrough must be achieved soon if Armenia and Azerbaijan hope to receive substantial reconstruction assistance, Perina indicated. "If we will have a settlement [in the near future], the international community will be very generous in providing funding and assistance to help this settlement and reconstruction. But I have to tell you the money is going very, very rapidly to different directions after [September 11] - not just American money but also EU money," he said.

Failure by Armenia and Azerbaijan to quickly resolve their differences could doom the two countries to a "frozen conflict," in which prolonged uncertainty frustrates economic development. Perina described Cyprus as a classic example of frozen conflict.

"We don’t want Nagorno-Karabakh to become of new example of a frozen conflict. The resolution will come - it is inevitable - but the question is when and how much of a price you are going to pay for this resolution," he said. "I think both sides are being hurt a lot."

Karabakh peace prospects seemed promising during negotiations in Key West, Florida in April 2001. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. However, momentum for a settlement stalled shortly thereafter. Perina hinted that looming elections in 2003 could reduce Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s room to maneuver on Karabakh. But he stressed that he personally remains optimistic, saying that the situation is prone to sudden changes.

"We will maintain momentum in the negotiations and keep on moving forward whatever pace we have," he said. "In this period we have to be very active, and the Minsk Group will be active."

Perina said that the Minsk Group co-chairs planned another trip to Armenia and Azerbaijan in the coming weeks. He added that a Karabakh settlement would require both sides to make difficult compromises. "The question is, have both sides really reached the point where they are willing to make such compromises," he said.

Editor�s Note: Kenan Aliev is a journalist based in Washington, DC.

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