Azerbaijan Confronts Political Paradox

A political paradox is apparent in Azerbaijan these days. On the one hand, Council of Europe membership marks a significant diplomatic triumph for the Azerbaijani government, and serves as a symbol of the country's democratic development. At the same time, some observers warn that with domestic repression on the rise, Azerbaijan is becoming increasingly unstable.

The Council of Europe (CoE) voted January 17 to admit Armenia and Azerbaijan, despite widespread international criticism of the way Baku conducted parliamentary elections in November. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Azerbaijan will dispatch its 12-member delegation January 20 to attend the upcoming session of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.

In opting to largely overlook Azerbaijan's dismal human rights record, European officials clearly hope that membership will help promote a settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. There appears to be growing interest in Russia and the West for a Karabakh resolution. Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and NATO Secretary General George Robertson, during recent visits to Baku, vigorously explored Karabakh peace prospects in talks with Azerbaijani officials. The lack of a settlement is one of the major obstacles hindering the development and export of significant oil and gas reserves in the Caspian Basin.

Ultimately, Azerbaijan's ability to fulfill CoE commitments, as well as reach its economic potential, will depend greatly on domestic stability. Recent developments in this sphere indicate that discontent is on the rise.

The government has tightened its grip on the political process in recent months. Some political observers attribute the crackdown to President's Heidar Aliev's desire to pave the way for the transfer of power to his son, Ilham. [For background see Eurasia Insight archives].

The falsification of election results is perhaps the most prominent example of government heavy handedness. But in recent weeks, the government has also moved to muzzle opposition media. Newspaper editors charge that officials have artificially created a shortage of newsprint in an effort to prevent the publication of opposition newspapers. In addition, officials used other methods to harass the media. For example, authorities have initiated criminal proceedings against the independent ABA television company for tax evasion.

Also, Zamin Hajiyev, a leading correspondent for the opposition Azadliq daily, alleged that the government orchestrated a January 18 assault, in which three armed and masked men failed in an attempt to kidnap the journalist. Hajiyev said the attack was politically motivated and designed to stifle opposition media. "This is how the government celebrates its admission to the Council of Europe," Hajiyev said at a January 19 news conference in Baku.

A broader indicator of instability is the shortage of energy supplies in Azerbaijan. Shortages are particularly acute outside of Baku. "The government is having a constant problem with meeting the energy need of the regions. It has to ration electricity. Many people in the regions have electricity for only several hours every day," said Ilham Shaban, a leading Baku-based energy analyst.

Some observers suggest that the more the government strives to ensure a dynastic-style political the political transition, the greater the chances for social unrest. Much of the population is unenthusiastic about the notion of Ilham Aliev succeeding his father as president. Many are also frustrated with the government for failing to address the country's economic shortcomings.

"Any future drop in the price of oil could do serious damage in Azerbaijan," Shaban said. "People are losing their illusions about Azerbaijan's future prosperity. They are starting to believe that this is a myth created by the government."