Little Optimism for Georgia’s Abkhazia Peace Plan

Tbilisi is pushing a new peace plan for Abkhazia, but Georgian analysts and locals near the border with the breakaway region say they see little chance that the plan will reverse years of animosity.

The plan, drafted by the government in association with various non-governmental organizations at the request of President Mikheil Saakashvili, is scheduled to be unveiled on January 25 when the Georgian president addresses the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). Though details are sparse, the proposal, which also covers South Ossetia, contains several items designed to transform Georgia into a "dual, federal state." The plan reportedly foresees a quota system for ethnic Abkhazians in the Georgian parliament that would assure them equal representation, a lifting of economic sanctions against the region, and restoration of the railway link between Tbilisi and the Abkhazian capital, Sokhumi. For its part, Abkhazia would be expected to give up its push for independence, settling instead for "federal" status within the "Georgian Federal State."

Georgia has also indicated that it will be willing to resume talks with the Abkhazian leadership in March in Geneva, under the auspices of the United Nations Secretary-General's Group of Friends of Georgia, which includes Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany.

But so far, the reaction from Sokhumi to Tbilisi's peace proposal has been less than enthusiastic. Sergei Bagapsh, elected president of the breakaway region in a landslide victory on January 12, has stated that "deepening . . . the integration process with the Russian Federation, as well as boosting Russian investments [in Abkhazia] and [establishing an] open-border policy [with Russia]" would be his administration's first priorities, the Russian news agency Novosti reported.

While the Abkhaz government has said that it will hold talks with Tbilisi in March, it has also set its own conditions. Negotiations should be held as between "two partners with equal rights," stated Bagaph, and hints about regaining Abkhazia by force – recently aired by Georgian Defense Minister Irakly Okruashvili -- must be abandonned. "If Tbilisi offers serious proposals over the conflict resolution, we will consider them," said Bagapsh. "But if Tbilisi keeps a hard-line stance, it will not foster dialogue."

That message was recently made as well by a group of 16 Georgian non-governmental organizations. In an open letter to President Saakashvili, the group argued that the government must put aside all references to the potential use of force to resolve the stand-off with Sokhumi, perform an "extremely objective" analysis of the 1992-1993 war with Abkhazia, and negotiate with Abkhazian officials on terms of parity. Mention of military force as a possible option, the January 6 letter stated, means that "talks about peace are perceived only as rhetoric. . . This situation will defiantly lead to a lack of trust in the negotiation process." The group has proposed extensive economic ties, including restored communications and railway ties, investment in the local economy and socio-economic support for the Abkhaz population, as additional reconciliation-deal sweeteners.

Already, however, discussion of such concessions has prompted fears that too much may be given away in the bid to regain Abkhazia, said one Tbilisi-based analyst. "It is a difficult procedure and people on both sides are concerned that they will lose too much in the process," said Ghia Nodia, head of the Caucasus Institute for Peace Development and Democracy. "The reopening of the railway link is a good idea, but it's controversial, as official Tbilisi has always linked this with a return of the internally displaced persons (IDPs) [to Abkhazia]."

Nor do many Georgian analysts believe that the Bagapsh administration will prove receptive to Tbilisi's overtures. "Tbilisi is offering to engage in serious conversations and to give Abkhazia a high level of autonomy," said Alex Rondeli, head of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. "But nothing can change if the other side does not negotiate."

Abkhazia's current state of affairs drives that skepticism. Bagapsh's January 12 election led to a power-sharing deal with chief rival and Moscow protégé, Raul Khajimba, that is seen in Georgia as only guaranteeing the region's status as a de facto Russian protectorate. Under the deal, Khajimba is charged with coordinating the region's foreign, defense and security policies. The agreement came after a barely concealed attempt by Moscow to block the outcome of an earlier presidential election on October 3, 2004 in which Bagapsh was declared the winner.

"The Russian political elite do not clearly know what they want," said Nodia. "They want to retain influence in this region, but they do it through actions like those in Abkhazia, which further pushes Georgia away."

Rondeli added that Russia's role in Abkhazia's October election fiasco shows that the Kremlin is "playing both sides."

"Russia wanted to show that they are in complete control of Abkhazia, so much so that they practically put Khajimba in power. This puts Georgia in a difficult position, because it can't negotiate with a puppet state," Rondeli said.

Suspicion of Russia's intentions toward Abkhazia has been an ongoing theme in Georgian policy toward the region and its relations with Moscow. In remarks on January 19, Foreign Minister Salome Zurabishvili stated that Tbilisi may question the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia, widely seen by Georgians as providing a type of insurance policy for the region's separatist leadership. "We are not against the presence of the Russian peacekeepers. What we are talking about is the legitimacy of their stay in the region," Zurabishvili told Interfax. "Russia must play the role of an unbiased mediator. At certain moments, Russia stops being objective."

That sense of a permanent impasse still runs strong in the village of Ganmukhuri, a small Georgian settlement along the border with Abkhazia that saw 11 of its villagers kidnapped – reportedly by Abkhazian militia – on the eve of the breakaway region's presidential elections. Though Sokhumi has issued no official comment on the incident, villagers and the government in Tbilisi maintain that the incident was staged to convince voters in the predominantly Georgian district of Gali in Abkhazia to keep away from the polls.

In response to the action, Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania sent a detachment of Georgia's "most elite" army troops to guard the villages that line the narrow stretch of the Inguri River separating Georgia from Abkhazia. The troops took up their position on January 12, the day of Bagapsh's election. In an apparent PR tactic, Zhvania also chose the day to announce that an ethnic Abkhazian journalist, Lela Avidzba, would act as the Georgian government