Eurasia Insight:
KOCHARIAN'S MOSCOW VISIT UNDERSCORES STRENGTHENING ARMENIAN-RUSSIAN SECURITY COOPERATION
Sergei Blagov: 1/21/03

Armenian President Robert Kocharian’s recent visit to Russia underscored the strengthening strategic ties between Yerevan and Moscow. This trend has prompted some regional analysts to raise questions about a possible shift in the strategic balance in the Caucasus.

The centerpiece of Kocharian’s January 16-18 visit was a military-technical cooperation agreement that bolsters what is already a close strategic relationship. In addition, Kocharian and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed several economic and cultural agreements. The two leaders also issued a joint declaration on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, reiterating the call for a peaceful, negotiated solution, as well as pledging vigilance in the struggle to contain international terrorism.

During a joint news conference, Putin offered effusive praise for the bilateral relationship, saying "it proved possible to reach the current level of cooperation … under Kocharian’s direct leadership." Kocharian, meanwhile, characterized Russia’s strategic presence in Armenia as a "strong stabilizing factor." He added that the recent transfer of Russian troops from Georgia to Armenia "would not affect the situation in the region."

Kocharian went on to stress that Armenia and Russia are forging closer security cooperation under the aegis of the CIS Collective Security Treaty, and thus the partnership "was not directed at third countries."

A few Moscow-based political observers, however, noted that Azerbaijani and Georgian officials do not agree with Kocharian’s assessment of Caucasus geopolitical conditions. For example, Azerbaijani defense officials told the British ambassador on January 14 that Armenia’s military build-up posed a potential threat to the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the Turan news agency reported.

Such expressions of concern lead political observers to question whether a stronger Armenian-Russian security relationship complicates the search for peace in Karabakh. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Stronger bilateral ties are in both Yerevan’s and Moscow’s best interests. With two hostile neighbors – Turkey and Azerbaijan – Armenia relies on Russia for crucial political and economic support. Armenia, meanwhile, is a reliable backer of Russia’s geopolitical policy in the Caucasus.

Armenia is traditionally Russia’s closest ally in the Caucasus. In 1997, the two countries signed a far-reaching friendship treaty, under which they provided for mutual assistance in the event of a military threat to either party. The pact also allows Russian border guards to patrol Armenia’s frontiers with Turkey and Iran.

There was also a domestic political element connected with Kocharian’s Moscow visit, which occurred a month before presidential elections in Armenia. Not surprisingly, some of Kocharian’s rivals for the presidency claimed that Kocharian’s main aim was to secure Putin’s support for re-election.

The election campaign officially began January 21 with Kocharian the clear favorite to secure re-election in a crowded field. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. "Everything should be done to ensure that elections are transparent, fair and democratic," Kocharian told the Arminfo news agency on January 20.

Opposition political forces, in statements published January 16, have denounced Kocharian for exerting pressure on the Central Election Commission and for manipulating state-controlled media to help secure re-election. Media coverage of the campaign has come under intensive scrutiny since the December 28 murder of Tigran Naghdalian, head of state-run Armenian Public Television and Radio (APTR). [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Kocharian has denied that state-run media has favored his campaign. He stressed that, under the country’s election law, mass media was obligated to provide equal coverage to all presidential candidates during the official campaign.