Geopolitical Pressure Compels Turkey to Re-examine International Options

Turkey is facing mounting geopolitical pressure – including the prospect of another war in Iraq and a snub by the European Union – that is pushing Ankara to reevaluate its international orientation. Political analysts say Turkish leaders are increasingly looking to Eurasian states to act as a buffer against potential regional instability.

Turkey has experienced dramatic shifts in its domestic and external politics in recent months. The Islamic-based Justice and Development Party (AKP) swept into power in Ankara following a landslide victory in the November 3 parliamentary elections. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Meanwhile, in the foreign policy sphere, Turkey has witnessed an erosion in the two main pillars of its traditionally pro-Western orientation. The EU's reluctance to set a date for starting accession talks, as well as friction between Ankara and Washington over a possible US-led campaign against Iraq, has left Turkish leaders frustrated and inclined to explore geopolitical alternatives, regional analysts say.

A large segment of Turkey's political class, including a bulk of AKP members, believe that Turkey should strengthen its position in the Middle East and the deepen ties with Russia and the Turkic nations in Central Eurasia to compensate for recent setbacks on the country's "Western Front." "[Current] developments make Turkey's positioning to the West reliant on its strength in the East," argues Kivanç Galip Över, the editor of the Diplomaticobserver.com website.

The EU's snub of Turkey at December's summit in Copenhagan has significantly diminished interest among Turks in joining the union. "There is now little room for keeping EU enthusiasm alive at home." says the political analyst Fatma Demirelli.

Some Turkish commentators contend that two significant factors – the country's geography and history – should be taken into consideration as the country ponders its future course. "Policies are usually shaped by geography," asserts the analyst Över.

Turkey's geographic location, some political thinkers maintain, encourages Turkey to adopt a mainly Eurasian and Middle Eastern strategic agenda. "If Turkey is not