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EURASIA INSIGHT

US-UZBEKISTAN RELATIONS: ANOTHER STEP TOWARD RAPPROCHEMENT?
1/23/08

Admiral William Fallon, head of the US Central Command, is expected to stop in Uzbekistan during his Central Asian tour. The visit marks an intensification of US efforts to block Russia from strengthening its energy position in Central Asia.

As Central Asia’s most populous nation, Uzbekistan is a vital player in the regional geopolitical and energy development games being waged by the United States, the European Union, Russia and China. Tashkent controls a relatively small amount of natural resources, mostly natural gas. But many of the export routes out of Central Asia cross Uzbek territory. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Relations between Washington and Brussels, on the one hand, and Tashkent on the other have been in a deep freeze since Uzbek security forces opened fire on unarmed civilians in Andijan in 2005. Immediately following the Andijan events, Uzbekistan strengthened relations with Russia, and to a lesser extent, China. Most notably, Tashkent signed a strategic partnership agreement with Russia, and joined the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In recent months, however, tension has seeped into the Uzbek-Russian relationship, presenting the United States and EU with a potential diplomatic opening. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The itinerary of Fallon’s Central Asian tour also includes Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Dushanbe, Fallon refrained from saying specifically when he would stop in Tashkent. Defense Department representatives, meanwhile, explained that the admiral’s schedule was tightly guarded for security reasons. Fallon also was reticent in discussing his agenda for the Uzbek visit, but he did emphasize that he would not seek the re-establishment of a US military base in Uzbekistan, according to a report distributed by the Asia-Plus news agency on January 22. Amid the fallout in diplomatic relations in 2005, Uzbekistan evicted US forces from a base at Karshi-Khanabad. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Political experts in Uzbekistan and elsewhere in Central Asia believe Fallon’s mission extends beyond purely military matters. Some believe the main aim is to lay the groundwork for a US-Uzbek rapprochement.

Developments in recent months suggest that both sides are looking for ways to mend fences. If nothing else, Uzbek President Islam Karimov could use improved relations with the United States and European Union as leverage against Russia in various ongoing negotiations, including discussions covering Uzbek access to the Prikaspiisky Pipeline project. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The first public hints of a thaw came in May 2007 when the EU lifted a visa ban on top Uzbek officials.

In the fall, a new US ambassador to Tashkent, Richard Norland, engaged in high-profile diplomacy that many observers interpreted as an effort to put US-Uzbek relations on track for rapprochement. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In December, Karimov responded positively to the US signals. In his Constitution Day address to the nation, the Uzbek leader surprised listeners when he denied the very existence of a problem in US/EU-Uzbek relations.

"There are still those who claim that there are disagreements between Uzbekistan on the one hand and the United State and European states on the other. It is not hard to see that they would like those disagreements to exist in order to benefit from them," Karimov stated. "Uzbekistan, in its foreign policy, has adhered to mutually beneficial cooperation with and mutual respect for its close and far neighbors, including the United States and Europe. We will never change this policy. Moreover, we can state with certainty that the foundation for equal and mutually beneficial relations that suit our national interests is growing even stronger."

Earlier in January, Pierre Morel, the European Union’s Special Representative for Central Asia, visited Tashkent. Details of Morel’s discussions with Uzbek leaders, including Karimov, have not been made public. Similar secrecy surrounds the arrival of Adm. Fallon. The visit itself, however, provides evidence that Washington is feeling a sense of urgency to re-engage Karimov.

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