EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - US Seeks Persian Gulf Allies Against Iran

EURASIA INSIGHT

US SEEKS PERSIAN GULF ALLIES AGAINST IRAN
Camelia Entekhabi-Fard 1/24/07

With the deadline for Iranian compliance with a United Nations Security Council resolution on its nuclear program less than a month away, recent remarks by a United States envoy to the Persian Gulf suggest that American opposition to Tehran is hardening. The extent to which that position will enjoy unqualified support among Persian Gulf residents, however, remains in doubt.

At a speech in Dubai on January 23, United States Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns told a group of academics, diplomats and journalists that a second US aircraft carrier strike group headed toward the Persian Gulf "is Washington’s way of warning Iran to back down in its attempts to dominate the region."

The USS John C. Stennis, along with several accompanying ships, is expected to arrive by late February in the Gulf, where it will join the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier group. Its presence will mark the first time since the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 that there have been two American carrier battle groups in the region.

The dispatch of the carrier groups to the Persian Gulf comes on the heels of a US-backed United Nations Security Council resolution in December, which called on Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program and imposed limited sanctions on the country. Iran has until February 21 to comply with the resolution.

"The Middle East isn’t a region to be dominated by Iran. The Gulf isn’t a body of water to be controlled by Iran," Burns commented.

"Iran is going to have to understand that the United States will protect its interests if Iran seeks to confront us," he continued. "We will defend our interests if we are challenged. That is a message Iran must understand."

Burns’ trip to Dubai followed a visit by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to the Middle East and Persian Gulf states on January 13-17. The desire to show Iran that the US has strong support in the Arab world, and in the Persian Gulf in particular, for its opposition to Iran’s nuclear development program featured prominently in both visits, which were officially designed to bolster support for the US campaign in Iraq.

However, remarks by analysts attending Burns’ speech in Dubai suggest that such support is far from firm among Persian Gulf residents. Although US officials, including Burns, have insisted that they are not seeking a military solution to their differences with Iran, many in Dubai believe the opposite.

"We are not interested in [whether there] is another war in the region," Dr. Mohammad al-Naqbi, who heads the Gulf Negotiations Center, a think-tank in Abu Dhabi, told Burns in reference to US opposition to Iran. "You destroyed a country that had institutions," he said in reference to the increasingly violent clashes between US forces and militia groups in Iraq. "You handed that country to Iran. Now you are crying to Europe and the Arabs to help you out of this mess. Why do you want to create a new war?"

Another attendee, lawyer Dr. Al-Rokn Mohammad, echoed that concern, arguing that experts say that Iran would be "10 to 15 years away" from creating a nuclear device "even if they have any plan to develop nuclear weapons."

In response, Burns, repeating earlier assertions, affirmed that the US is "not seeking confrontation."

"If Iran continues to ignore the UN resolution, it will be harsher, and there will be more sanctions for Iran. We are not seeking war. We are seeking negotiation."

Business interests could also play a role in local skepticism about US intentions. Iranians in Dubai, the Middle East’s financial hub, enjoy longstanding close business ties with their counterparts throughout the United Arab Emirates. Trade between Iran and the UAE in 2006 stood at about $10 billion, according to the Iranian Business Council, a 400-member organization in Dubai. In 2007, that number is expected to increase to $11 billion.

"Of course, no one wants war in this region. Our Emirates business partners are upset," commented Iranian Business Council Vice-President Nasser Hashempour. "Iran is one of the biggest business partners in Dubai. If anything bad happens to Iran, they lose this large market and our partnership, which will be a huge loss for them," said in Dubai.

In a live television interview on January 23, however, Iranian President Ahmadinejad discounted the threat of a US attack against Iran. The pressure put on the Islamic state is "more psychological," he told viewers.

The US is "absolutely incapable of inflicting serious damage on the Islamic Republic of Iran," the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported Ahmadinejad as saying. "They would like to hurt [Iran] but they are not in a position to do so."

In a January 23 meeting with Undersecretary of State Burns, Dubai’s ruler, Shaikh Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the vice-president and prime minister of the United Arab Emirates, assured the US official that the UAE "strongly supports sincere international and regional endeavors aimed at consolidating security and stability in the region."

The next few weeks could prove critical to the varying interpretations of US intentions toward Iran and of the Islamic state’s own readiness to comply with Security Council demands, however. Iran is expected to shortly hold official celebrations for its creation of centrifuge cascades, which can produce enriched uranium. One US-based analyst, who asked not to be named, conjectured that the event could provide an opportunity for Iran to agree to at least a temporary suspension of enrichment activities without renouncing their self-described national "right to enrich."

US officials no doubt would welcome such a decision. If Iran gives up its nuclear program, Burns said in Dubai, the US government, including Secretary of State Rice, would be willing to talk directly with Iran. "The offer is on the table," Burns said.

But for now, at least, Tehran looks unlikely to take up that offer, the visits by Burns and Rice to the Persian Gulf region notwithstanding. One Iranian diplomat, who spoke with EurasiaNet on condition of anonymity, stated that while nothing is impossible for Iran’s relations with the US -- even a visit by Secretary of State Rice to Tehran -- it does not see its Persian Gulf neighbors as allied with the US against Iran.

"We have very good relationships with our neighboring countries and know that the U.S. is just making propaganda about having regional support against us," the diplomat said.

Editor�s Note: Camelia Entekhabi-Fard has reported from Afghanistan and Iran for EurasiaNet. She sent this report from the United Arab Emirates.

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