In light of increasing instability in Pakistan and the apparent decline of President Pervez Musharraf's influence, American analysts say the United States needs to broaden its approach toward Pakistan to include aid not just to its army, but to civil society organizations, political parties, the court system and police.
The United States also needs to ensure that coming elections in Pakistan are seen as fair and credible by the Pakistani people. Such a policy shift by Washington could help produce a Pakistani government with a greater ability to fight Islamist extremists on the country's border with Afghanistan, the analysts say.
"Pakistan's effort to counter insurgents in the Pashtun belt and beyond requires political legitimacy, which Musharraf lacks. I am optimistic that an elected prime minister can be motivated to continue the fight," said Christine Fair, an analyst at the RAND Corporation. She spoke at a hearing of a subcommittee of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs, titled "US-Pakistan relations: Assassination, Instability and the Future of US Policy."
At the January 16 hearing, both Democrat and Republican members of Congress and liberal and conservative think tank representatives generally agreed on broad changes that Washington needs to make in its policy to Pakistan. "Conventional wisdom holds that in this part of the world stability and democracy are mutually exclusive. But in the case of Pakistan it is increasingly clear that holding fair and transparent elections provides the best chance for stabilizing the country," said Lisa Curtis, a fellow at the Heritage Foundation. "Ultimately a popularly elected civilian government working hand-in-hand with a strong military focused on its primary mission of battling extremists will provide stability and security for the Pakistani people."
But what remains to be seen is whether the key actors -- the White House, State Department and Pentagon -- agree with the expert consensus.
Several steps have been made recently in the right direction, the analysts said. The United States has vowed to make $750 million in development investments in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on the border with Afghanistan. It will no longer give $200 million in aid unconditionally to the Pakistan government budget, but will administer that aid through the US Agency for International Development. The appointment of a new chief of army staff and prime minister will create new power centers in the country, possibly creating short-term instability but diffusing the influence of the increasingly unpopular Musharraf.
In the meantime, the Pentagon is assessing what changes in its training and assistance to the Pakistani Army might be needed in light of a recent uptick in violence in the FATA.
"FATA
Editor's note:
Joshua Kucera is a Washington, DC,-based freelance writer who specializes in security issues in Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East.
