Turkey Wages Two-Pronged Diplomatic Offensive to Boost Western Integration Effort

Turkey is in the midst of a crucial two-pronged diplomatic offensive designed to boost Ankara's Western integration aspirations. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is visiting the United States, seeking to fully repair a bilateral relationship damaged by differences concerning the US-led invasion of Iraq. At the same time, Turkish leaders are working to produce a Cyprus settlement that would enhance Ankara's chances of joining the European Union in the near future.

Erdogan arrived in the United States on January 25 on a five-day trip that is designed to attract US investment and mend fences with the Bush administration. Turkish-US ties deteriorated rapidly following the Turkish parliament's decision in March 2003 not to grant US forces temporary basing rights prior to the offensive that ousted former Iraqi Dictator Saddam Hussein. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In recent months, Turkish and US officials have made steady progress in restoring political ties. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The highlight of Erdogan's visit will come on January 28, when the Turkish prime minister holds talks with US President George W. Bush.

The US and Turkish leaders are expected to concentrate on narrowing their differences on the Iraq stabilization effort. Entering a presidential election year at home, the Bush administration is anxious to pick up the pace of the Iraqi stabilization process. Ankara remains concerned that, in Washington's haste, ethnic Kurds in northern Iraq could end up with broader autonomy. Such autonomy, many in Ankara believe, could provide support for a renewed armed struggle in Turkey by Kurdish separatists. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Turkish officials are keen to eliminate the presence of the militant Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) from strongholds in northern Iraq, and Erdogan is expected to raise this issue with US officials. Turkish leaders have expressed disappointment over Washington's perceived reluctance to tackle the PKK question.

As for the future shape of Iraq, Ankara prefers a potential federal arrangement that is based on geographical considerations, rather than one based on ethnic factors. Under the geographical variant, Iraq would be divided into 18 administration regions. US officials have indicated that they are giving the geographical plan strong consideration, in part because of worries that an ethnically based division plan might enhance the ability of Sh'ia radicals to exert influence over Iraq's new government.

Erdogan is also expected to press Bush for a larger share of Iraq reconstruction contracts. In addition, the Turkish PM is likely to seek an easing of the conditions attached to US economic assistance worth up to $8.5 billion. So far, Turkey has been reluctant to access the aid because of a requirement that prohibits potential Turkish intervention in northern Iraq. Given what it sees as the PKK threat in the region, Ankara wants to keep its security options open. Accordingly, Erdogan may ask that the anti-intervention condition be dropped.

Washington has acknowledged Turkish concerns, having placed the PKK on its list terrorist organizations. A major incentive for the Bush administration to harmonize its position with Turkey is the fact that Ankara has positioned itself as a diplomatic go-between in the Middle East. As such, Turkey can potentially play key roles not only in the Iraq stabilization effort, but also in the broader search for Middle East peace.

In recent months, the Turkish government has expanded ties with Islamic states in the region, including Iran and Syria. Erdogan is expected to convey a message on Middle East peace possibilities to Bush from Syrian leader Bashir Assad, who visited Turkey in early January. Erdogan will also brief US officials on his recent talks with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, as well as on the recent diplomatic parlay between Turkish and Iranian leaders.

Concurrent with Erdogan's US visit, Turkish diplomats are striving for a breakthrough on a United Nations-backed plan to foster the reunification of Cyprus. Turkey's National Security Council, which includes top military leaders, has endorsed a government call to resume reunification efforts. The Turkish Cypriot leadership has additionally expressed its readiness to resume negotiations. Erdogan met with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, urging the UN to take the lead in the reunification effort. The UN has floated the idea of holding a referendum in Cyprus on reunification, regardless of whether Greek and Turkish leaders have resolved their political differences.

During an appearance in New York on January 26, Erdogan called on Greek Cypriot officials to show a similar commitment to reunification. "We will not be the side running away from the [negotiating] table," the Anatolia news agency quoted Erdogan as saying in New York. Provided his talks on bilateral US-Turkish do not hit any unexpected snags, Erdogan could formally request that Washington act as a mediator on the Cyprus issue.

The Turkish desire for a resumption of reunification talks is driven in large measure by the pending Greek Cypriot accession to the EU in May. Ankara hopes that if a reunification deal can be struck before then, it will boost Turkey's chances of opening accession talks with the EU in the near future.

Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash recently visited Turkey to coordinate his negotiating position with officials in Ankara. He has questioned whether a reunification plan can be finalized by May, while stressing that he will make every effort to do so. In 2003, Denktash's reluctance to back the UN plan helped cause a halt in the negotiation process.

Resolution of the Cypriot issue would remove a major obstacle blocking Turkey's efforts to join the EU. A mid-January visit by EU Commission head Romano Prodi to Turkey raised Ankara's accession hopes. During the visit, Prodi pressed Turkish leaders to strengthen democratic reforms that would bring Ankara into compliance with EU standards, but emphasized that "Turkey is on the right track." The EU is expected to decide in late 2004 whether or not to open formal accession talks with Turkey.