Opposition Leaders Seek Elusive Accord in Georgia

Two key Georgian opposition figures, Mikhail Saakashvili and Zurab Zhvania, have announced an ambitious plan to forge a broad opposition alliance for the fall 2003 parliamentary elections. This partnership attempt could heavily influence the electoral strategies for both the opposition and for President Eduard Shevardnadze. The challenges involved in creating the opposition alliance, though, are significant, and some analysts already caution that they may prove insurmountable.

Saakashvili heads the radical New National Movement and Zhvania leads the more-moderate United Democrats. Both men were once Shevardnadze allies who occupied influential political posts – Saakashvili serving as justice minister and Zhvania as parliament speaker. Both eventually split with Shevardnadze. [For additional information see the EurasiaNet Opposition Reports].

Analysts say that when they operated as radical reformers within Shevardnadze's power base, the Citizens Union of Georgia party (CUG), Zhvania generally coordinated his positions to Saakashvili's. But as their ambitions grew, the two men followed divergent paths. Saakashvili tried for a clean break with the president, while Zhvania was more willing to keep open a channel of communication with Shevardnadze.

Saakashvili formed the New National Movement relatively early in 2001, allying progressive elements of the CUG with smaller radical nationalist and radical reformer parties. Rallying under the slogan of "Georgia without Shevardnadze," Saakashvili gained a parliamentary seat in October 2001 and assembled a slate for the June 2002 Tbilisi local elections. Zhvania broke from the ruling party during October 2001 street protests. The move helped precipitate a government overhaul. His attempts to wrestle the CUG away from Shevardnadze supporters failed, and he had to run under the ticket of a minor political party in June 2002 local elections. The hastily assembled United Democrats team managed, however, to clear the 7 percent vote barrier to gain seats on the Tbilisi city council.

The January 21 announcement of political alliance plans confirms that Saakashvili and Zhvania are again willing to collaborate. The popular leaders could form a solid core of a potentially formidable opposition bloc. Analysts argue that Zhvania and Saakashvili do not compete for the same voters, with Zhvania's United Democrats attracting the support of the intelligentsia and the nascent moderate middle class, while Saakashvili taps into a broad spectrum of protest voters.

The leaders also use complementary skills, local political observers say. Zhvania enjoys a reputation as a team player. He led the opposition-wide dialogue in during the summer of 2002 that discredited the use of violence in the political process. Many voters associate Saakashvili, who now serves as Tbilisi city council chairman, with his uncompromising push at deep-rooted corruption.

Initial statements by the two political leaders suggest that differences over political strategy may hinder the realization of their merger plans. Zhvania says he seeks an "alliance based on sound fundamentals" of shared vision that would continue to collaborate beyond parliamentary elections this fall. "I do not believe in the coalitions formed