Tajikistan: Possibility of Expanded Security Ties with Washington Sparks Enthusiasm in Dushanbe

US plans to carry out a significant buildup of forces in Afghanistan are heightening a sense of anticipation in neighboring Tajikistan about a potentially significant rise in American aid and investment. With the global financial crisis taking a drastic toll on Tajikistan's economy, Tajik leaders seem eager to obtain assistance from wherever they can get it.

In recent months, Tajikistan's already shaky economic foundation has weakened dangerously. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Adding to the woes of President Imomali Rahmon's administration, relations with Russia, traditionally Tajikistan's chief patron, appear strained. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Just over a week into his administration, US President Barack Obama has moved quickly and assertively to bolster US military operations in Afghanistan, pushing forward with a plan to raise American troop levels in the country by 30,000. The desire to expand the military's profile in Afghanistan has likewise encouraged American strategic planners to carve out a wider presence in Central Asian countries, which are now expected to play a vital supply-and-support role in the Afghan surge.

During a Central Asian tour earlier in January, the chief of US Central Command, Gen. David Petraeus, met with President Imomali Rahmon to discuss Tajikistan's role as a transport and logistics corridor for aid to neighboring Afghanistan. Rahmon readily agreed that US non-military cargo and aid could transit Tajik territory to Afghanistan.

Many experts in Dushanbe see Rahmon's agreement as the first step in a vast expansion in US-Tajik military cooperation, an expansion that some in Dushanbe believe could culminate in the opening of an American military base on Tajik soil.

Following Petraeus' visit, some Tajik officials appeared giddy over the potential for a relative flood of American dollars to flow into Dushanbe. Outside aid is desperately needed, as the country struggles to stave off a fiscal implosion. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Initial expectations concerning expanding US-Tajik ties have focused on bridge construction. Tajikistan and Afghanistan are currently connected via six bridges along the Pyanj River. The biggest - a 700-meter span at Nizhny Pyanj in Tajikistan's Khatlon Province - was completed in 2007 with US government financial support. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On January 21, Tajik Minister of Foreign Affairs Khamrohon Zarifi announced the US government would fund construction of an additional bridge in Khatlon's Farkhor District. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A US Embassy representative subsequently clarified the issue, saying only the construction of another bridge was under consideration.

Given Rahmon's stated readiness to expand US-Tajik cooperation, experts believe there is a strong possibility the country would be amenable to hosting a US military facility.

In an interview with EurasiaNet, an official from the State Research Center, who asked to remain anonymous, said Tajik officials are eager to host foreign bases. "Tajikistan can provide not only its technical capacity, but its territorial capacity for bases. Currently the country is very much interested in having a peaceful neighborhood and right now only the US presence over the border [with Afghanistan] can guarantee that. If the issues of opening US air base in the country will come up, no doubt it will find a positive solution," he said. An American base would have the additional benefit of providing a substantial cash infusion into the local economy, said Khojimuhamad Umarov, a senior economist at the Ministry of Economics and Trade Development. The current situation "is not a sustainable economic model, as it makes Tajikistan dependent on Russia's economy. Cooperation with the USA - in addition to creating much needed jobs ... [it] will help improve the knowledge base of Tajik entrepreneurs," Umarov said.

Boymahmad Alibakhshev, Chairman of the trade development organization Milal-Inter in Tajikistan's remote Gorno-Badakhshan Province agrees that a hypothetical US military presence could help foster economic development. "High unemployment in our isolated region has forced workers to leave the country for Russia," he said. Boymahmad has negotiated with the government to open three free trade zones in rural border communities.

Umarov indicated that a new consensus was taking shape in Dushanbe, one in favor of the diversification of the country's trade partners. "At this point cooperation with USA can be only for [our] benefit," Umarov said.

Independent political analyst Rashid Abdullo suggested that even if aid expectations were not met, an American security presence would be beneficial. "Considering the recent expansion of extremists groups, in particular the Taliban, a stable US military presence can also be a peace guarantee for Tajikistan," he said.

Editor's Note: Saodat Mahbatsho is the pseudonym for a Tajik journalist.