He's experienced more peaks and valleys than any other Iranian political figure since the establishment of Iran's Islamic Republic. Aliakbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been down in recent years, but his recent actions indicate that he's gearing up for one more comeback, having positioned himself as the political figure best able to foil President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's neo-conservative faction.
Rafsanjani's long public career seemed at an end in 2005, when he suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Ahmadinejad in that year's presidential election. "Most people considered him finished then," a reform-minded cleric in Tehran, who is closely involved with the country's complicated political process, told EurasiaNet. "His reputation was badly tarnished and he was left with few friends."
In the months after the presidential election disaster, Rafsanjani startled many political observers by not accepting the apparently political reality and heading quietly into retirement. Instead, he dusted himself off and, in 2006, ran for a seat in the powerful all-cleric Assembly of Experts. Casting himself as an anti-hardliner, Rafsanjani not only was elected, he won a narrow vote against an ultra-conservative rival for the chairmanship of the assembly. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive] Since then, he has been a prominent Ahmadinejad critic.
"Many people are truly horrified at this new wave of radicalism and have come to appreciate Rafsanjani's stand against it," the cleric continued. "That plus his open criticism of the Supreme Leader -- not to mention his moderate views -- has made him a central political figure in Iran again."
These days, Rafsanjani may well be the only public figure in Iran who can get away with criticizing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. In 2005, during his presidential run, Rafsanjani said in an interview that, if elected, he would work for changing the prerogatives of the office of the Supreme Leader; a fact that many people attribute partly to Ayatollah Khamenei's decision to switch to backing Ahmadinejad in that election.
For the most part though, Rafsanjani's criticism of the Supreme Leader is indirect and difficult to detect. "These (the criticism) are designed primarily for intra-factional and intra-clerical consumption," said the cleric. "But that doesn't deflect from their significance one bit."
Since the presidential election, Rafsanjani has struggled to secure greater powers for the institution that he controls. In particular, he has waged a long fight to gain substantive oversight authority over the executive branch of government. In other words, he has sought to fashion himself as Ahmadinejad's ideological commissar, possessing veto power over political, economic and social policy.
Not surprisingly, the president and his men have fiercely resisted Rafsanjani's efforts. And so far Ayatollah Khamenei has sided with Ahmadinejad. In an interview distributed by the official Fars News Agency in early November of last year, Rafsanjani accused the Supreme Leader of formally blocking an Expediency Council effort to form an oversight committee. The behind-the-scenes storm must have been very severe, as the very next day Rafsanjani was forced to publicly backtrack, claiming that he had never made such comments. But to confuse the situation, Rafsanjani also said that the Expediency Council retained its oversight function.
Trying to predict the outcomes of Iran's opaque political ways is never easy, but it seems fairly certain that Rafsanjani is now trying to curry favor again with the Supreme Leader. On November 22, during a public appearance with students, the savvy Rafsanjani appeared to turn on the charm.
"You won't find two people in this country who are closer to one another than myself and the Supreme Leader," he was quoted as telling a group of students. When asked: "Do you still like him?" Rafsanjani immediately responded: "Very much! ? I and Mr. Khamenei have been close friends and confidants for over 50 years and we consult with one another about everything."
Then, in a statement issued November 23, Rafsanjani reiterated his fealty to Supreme Leader. Acknowledging that he did have policy differences with Ayatollah Khamenei, Rafsanjani stressed: "I must obey my leader legally and religiously and this is our arrangement. Indeed, he is the leader and we are the followers."
While Rafsanjani's campaign hasn't secured for him the oversight authority that he desires, it does stand to be potentially beneficial for him. It has planted in the minds of many Iranians that he shouldn't be blamed for Iran's recent economic nosedive, and thus it keeps him in position for a possible return to power should Ahmadinejad continue to stumble in the domestic arena, and Iran's economy continues to deteriorate.
Editor's note:
Kamal Nazer Yasin is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.
