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EURASIA INSIGHT

FOES TAKE AIM AT AHMADINEJAD
Kamal Nazer Yasin 1/30/07

As tension builds between Iran and the international community over the Iranian nuclear program, an even more significant conflict keeps brewing inside Iranian governing circles.

On one side is the faction associated with the radical-conservative president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. On the other sits an assortment of hard-line and traditionalist conservative groupings that are angling to take advantage of the administration’s mounting difficulties. Ahmadinejad and his neo-conservative allies are coming under increasing criticism over the country’s worsening economic situation, as well as its international isolation.

On the economic front, experts place the real rate of inflation near 30 percent, roughly double the official figure. According to some estimates, rents and housing prices in Tehran have increased over 40 percent in the last year. In addition, food prices are rapidly rising. A cascade of business failures, coupled with unprecedented levels of capital flight, has fanned fears of an economic collapse. Most observers agree that, so far, the government has failed to deliver on promises of improved living standards for its main political constituency, comprising impoverished and working-class Iranians.

In the face of growing pressure, the Ahmadinejad administration has ratcheted up its nationalist rhetoric. During an appearance in parliament January 21, made in connection with his presentation of the government’s 2007 fiscal year budget, Ahmadinejad appeared determined to goad the international community into intensifying the confrontation over the nuclear issue. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. He indicated that United Nations sanctions would not deter his administration in its efforts to make Iran a nuclear power. "Even if they issue 10 more such resolutions, it will not affect Iran’s economy or politics," he said, referring to a UN Security Council resolution adopted in late December. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, he dismissed inflation worries as mere "rumors."

The confrontational rhetoric seems to be heightening a sense of urgency among Ahmadinejad’s growing number of opponents, who want to restrain the president’s policies before he steers Iran into a geopolitical corner. Several MPs have launched an initiative to force Ahmadinejad to appear in parliament for hearings on his administration’s economic policies. Proceedings are also underway to impeach four of his ministers accused of incompetence.

In mid-January, 150 legislators sent an open letter to Ahmadinejad, blaming him for rising inflation and high unemployment. The MPs also insisted that the administration take action to control spending, as well as reduce the country’s dependence on oil revenue to fill the state’s coffers.

The reformist newspaper Etemad Melli attacked Ahmadinejad’s mid-January tour of three Latin American nations � Venezuela, Nicaragua and Ecuador. The newspaper suggested that Ahmadinejad’s "left-wing friends are good for coffee house talks, but not for setting our security, political and economic priorities."

By far the sharpest criticism has been directed at Ahmadinejad’s nuclear rhetoric. According to Iranian sources, statements made by Ahmadinejad on several occasions have disrupted delicate discussions between lead European Union nuclear negotiator Javier Solana and his Iranian counterpart, Ali Larijani.

The first barrage of criticism of the president’s meddling in nuclear matters came on January 12, when the newspaper Hamshahri, published by a Larijani ally, characterized Ahmadinejad’s confrontational rhetoric unproductive and unnecessary. "At the very moment when the nuclear issue was about to move away from the UN Security Council, the fiery speeches of the president have resulted in the adoption of two resolutions against Iran," the commentary said.

On January 15, an editorial in the influential Jomhouri Eslami newspaper, which represents the views of the traditionalist-conservative clergy, skewered Ahmadinejad’s policies in surprisingly harsh terms. "Turning the nuclear issue into a propaganda issue gives the impression that you [Ahmadinejad], [try] to cover up flaws in the government," the editorial stated. It went on to demand that Ahmadinejad "stop provoking aggressive powers like the United States, and concentrate on the daily needs of the people, those who voted for you on your promises."

Observers are quick to point out that Ahmadinejad is overstepping his authority on nuclear matters. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, they note, designated Larijani as the Iranian official with ultimate responsibility for nuclear policy. Ayatollah Khamenei’s support proved critical to Ahmadinejad’s rise to power. However, it appears that the Supreme Leader’s commitment to Ahmadinejad’s course is now wavering.

While Ahmadinejad struggles to shore up his political position, his chief rival for power, Aliakbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, is taking fast action to bolster his image as a sober-minded alternative to the president’s in-your-face approach to politics. Rafsanjani’s political clout has risen dramatically since Iran’s December 15 elections, in which pro-presidential candidates took a beating in votes for municipal councils and for the Assembly of Experts. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

On January 24, Rafsanjani demonstrated his intent to expand his influence over nuclear policy by meeting with the British ambassador, Geoffrey Adams. Just days after Iran caused consternation in the international community by prohibiting 38 inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency from entering Iran, Rafsanjani reportedly told Adams that Iran wanted to prove its nuclear program is for civilian applications only. The Iranian politician suggested that Tehran was open to negotiating "any verifying measures by responsible authorities."

In addition, Rafsanjani has embraced moderation in his approach to the nuclear issue. "Rhetoric should be adopted in a wiser way, as the current situation is anything but normal," he said January 26 during Friday prayers in Tehran.

Editor’s Note: Kamal Nazer Yasin is a pseudonym for a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian affairs.

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