Kazakhstani Leaders Move to Establish Reformist Credentials Ahead of Parliamentary Vote

Kazakhstan's leadership is seeking to establish a reformist image ahead of parliamentary elections later in 2004. Parliament is poised to approve an electoral code that seeks to improve the transparency of the voting process. Meanwhile, a new political party headed by President Nursultan Nazarbayev's daughter, Dariga, is casting itself as Kazakhstan's leading movement for social change.

After months of public debate, Kazakhstan's parliament on January 26 approved the first reading of the revised electoral code. As currently written, a major feature of the new law is the expansion of the supervisory role of political parties in the ballot-counting process. In addition, the electoral code would provide for transparent ballot boxes, and implement measures designed to improve the accuracy of voter lists. MPs are now sifting through roughly 600 proposed amendments to the law. A final vote is expected on February 20.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has offered a guarded view of Kazakhstan's electoral reform process. In a preliminary assessment, OSCE's Almaty office acknowledged the improvements contained in the electoral code. But, without going into specifics, the OSCE assessment added that additional refinements were needed to guarantee fair elections.

Observers had expected that debate on the electoral changes would be contentious, but the law was approved on its first reading without heated discussion. The vote by a joint session of Kazakhstan's parliament ended up being nearly unanimous. At the last minute, opposition to the government draft dissipated when the parliamentary faction Aul (Village) withdrew its support for an alternate bill advanced by the reformist party Ak Zhol (Bright Path). The government-supported reform bill also co-opted key aspects of the Ak Zhol-proposed version.

Explaining Aul's surprise move, faction leader Gani Kaliev said that the two sides had found sufficient common ground for Aul to change its vote. Ak Zhol, which does not have parliamentary representation at present, has sought to position itself as the leading reformist force in Kazakhstan. The country is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in the fall of 2004. The maneuvering prior to the election code vote undercut Ak Zhol's reformist image, and left party leaders furious. Party Co-Chair Bulat Abilov told the television Channel 31 that government pressure on MPs forced Aul's last-minute switch of allegiance.

The January 26 vote came shortly before a convention of the Dariga Nazarbayeva-led Asar (All Together) Party, at which the pro-presidential movement sought to cloak itself in a reformist mantle, thereby further eclipsing Ak Zhol. Local political experts said that, judging from the outcome of the party congress, President Nazarbayev intends to rely on the movement to implement his vision of modernizing Kazakhstan's economy while maintaining a tight grip on political power.

That Asar will be closely linked with President Nazarbayev appears a foregone conclusion. The president lavished praise on Asar on the opening day of the party's congress January 31. He described Asar, which was formally organized only last autumn, as "a party of specific deeds," going on to say that it would "put into practice progressive ideas of economic development," the Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency reported.

Meanwhile, Dariga made no secret that she would avail herself of her family connections to further the party's agenda. Nazarbayeva said that she would "actively and confidently exploit to the fullest [extent] her family [ties], and also media [connections]," a separate Interfax-Kazakhstan report stated. Nazarbayeva, in addition to being the Asar chairwoman, heads the Khabar television agency and is a leader of a major Kazakhstani association of journalists.

In outlining the party program, Nazarbayeva stressed that addressing social issues, in particular ecological hazards, was a top Asar priority. She added that profits from Kazakhstan's abundant energy sector should be better utilized to fund improvements in the social safety net. Such a populist program should help Asar attract votes from two major constituencies – rural residents and pensioners – political experts say.

Nazarbayeva also has urged the consolidation of all reform-minded political forces into an electoral bloc, presumably led by Asar. The formation of such a bloc could ensure that the Nazarbayev administration continues to enjoy a dominating parliamentary majority, local political observers say.

Asar has already taken action to extend its influence in the legislature. On January 27, Asar leaders announced the formation of a parliamentary faction, comprising 10 legislators at present. The Asar faction is headed by Rashid Akhmetov, a senator who has extensive connections to Kazakhstan's burgeoning business community.

The rapid rise of Nazarbayeva's political profile has spurred speculation that she is being groomed to assume power from her father. Presidential aides, however, have repeatedly emphasized that Nazarbayev has no intention of stepping aside soon. On January 31, presidential aide, Yermukhamet Yertysbayev told journalists that Nazarbayev would seek another seven-year term in the next presidential poll in 2006. "The issue of the presidency here is sorted out until 2013," Interfax-Kazakhstan quoted Yertysbayev as saying.