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EURASIA INSIGHT

REPORT: WASHINGTON MUST RE-CONCEPTUALIZE IT’S SECURITY VISION FOR EURASIA
6/13/04

A new report prepared by a Washington, DC,-based think tank is calling on the Bush administration to re-conceptualize its strategic approach towards Eurasia, shifting attention away from the Caspian Basin’s energy reserves, and focusing more on combating security threats in Central Asia.

The February report by the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, titled "Central Asia in US Strategy and Operational Planning: Where do we go from here?," characterizes US policy towards Eurasia as "more ad hoc than well reasoned in terms of future implications for US strategic interests." It goes on to suggest the Bush administration preoccupation with energy considerations has helped blur vital distinctions between the Caucasus and Central Asia.

"To the extent that energy issues enter into debates over policy options, it should be in the context of discussions as to how energy wealth can be used to stabilize the weak states along the Caspian littoral, and inhibit the decline of living standards that provide fertile recruiting grounds for radical Islam and other extremist ideologies," the report said.

The report says that, while Washington has fixated on the Caspian’s abundant "hydrocarbon reserves," Central Asian security conditions have been steadily deteriorating. "The focus commanded by the Caspian [has] diverted attention away from more worrisome trends in Central Asia," the report said.

It states that social, political and economic conditions in Central Asian states have experienced a "precipitous and worrisome" decline since the 1991 Soviet collapse. The report adds that the actions of "deeply corrupt regimes" in the region are contributing to "a growing chasm between �haves’ and �have-nots.’"

"The combination of economic hardship and political repression provides ample breeding ground for extremist Islamic movements," the report said. The IFPA is an independent and nonpartisan research and strategic planning organization.

In the aftermath of the September 11 terrorism tragedy, the United States bolstered its strategic presence in Central Asia, establishing military bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. At the time, US strategic planners said the bases were needed to support anti-terrorist operations in Afghanistan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The IFPA report argues that the strategic alliance with Uzbekistan is now undermining US regional security interests.

"Partnership with [authoritarian] regimes ... diminishes [local] perceptions of the United States as a liberal-minded and benevolent superpower, potentially lending credence to Islamic extremist characterizations of the United States as a cynical, self-serving power," the report said. "Although the United States has pumped significant economic and security assistance into Central Asia, everyday Central Asians are more likely to perceive these funds as pay-offs, propping up regional autocrats in exchange for military access."

The report argued that a better way to promote stability in Central Asia would be for the Bush administration to emphasize civil society development. So far, US diplomats have preferred to engage in quiet diplomacy to persuade regional leaders, including Uzbek President Islam Karimov, to implement reforms, and thus relieve mounting social pressure. Such diplomatic efforts have been largely ignored by Karimov and others. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "The United States needs to do a better job of holding Karimov’s feet to the fire," the report said.

Given Uzbekistan’s recalcitrance, Washington should consider "diversifying" its military presence in Central Asia, seeking to boost strategic cooperation with neighboring countries, in particular Kazakhstan. Among the reports recommendations is that Washington give Karimov until January 2006 to demonstrate "real progress on economic and political reform." If US officials determine that insufficient progress has been made by that date, the United States should be prepared withdraw its forces in, and drastically curtail its links with Uzbekistan.

The report also calls on the Bush administration to commit more resources to contain the burgeoning narcotics trade throughout Central Asia. "Not only would doing so undercut an essential revenue source for extremist organizations, but the monitoring and disruption of narcotics trafficking networks also might benefit efforts to interdict transfers of weapons of mass destruction," the report states.

Among other recommendations, the IFPA is urging that the Bush administration to explore the possible "diplomatic benefits ... to engaging Moscow and Beijing more actively in Central Asia." The report also calls on the United States to expand ties with India "as a hedging step against the potential loss of Pakistani basing infrastructure."

Editor�s Note: The full text of the IFPA report can be found at the organization’s web site: http://www.ifpa.org

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the position of the Open Society Institute and are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.