Eurasia Insight:
ARMENIA: MANEUVERING BEGINS AHEAD OF MAY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
Haroutiun Khachatrian: 2/05/07

With the date now set for Armenia’s parliamentary elections, political debate is turning to a larger question: Will the vote be falsified? While officials have vowed to hold a free and fair election on May 12, opposition parties are questioning how these pledges will play out in practice.

In recent weeks, the topic of falsification has dominated now-daily public discussions and party statements. Armenia’s 2003 presidential election and its 2005 constitutional referendum, two controversial votes widely condemned for failing to meet international standards, are the latest standards for comparison, though doubts surround earlier votes as well. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

“All previous elections were falsified. All those who organized these falsifications were given posts,” said Vazgen Manukian, leader of the National Democratic Union Party (NDUP), on January 30, the daily Hayots Ashkhar reported. “How do they dare say that these elections will be better than the previous ones?”

For their part, election officials do not exclude the possibility of vote rigging, but maintain that the onus for prevention lies on the political parties taking part in the May election. Central Election Commission (CEC) Chairman Garegin Azarian told reporters on January 24 that violations are only possible during vote counts at local polling stations, which transmit data automatically to the CEC.

One opposition representative on the CEC, however, disputed this claim. Feliks Khachatrian, a delegate from the opposition Ardarutiun (Justice) bloc, has charged that gaps in the election code leave room for falsifications. Khachatrian took issue with the existence of voter lists for on-duty policemen, along with the infirm and disabled, which are not prepared by election commissions and which, in theory, could lead to repeat votes. “Do not have a hope that we will have normal elections,” media outlets reported Khachatrian as saying.

Opposition leaders say that placing active, dedicated party volunteers at polling stations is the best way to encourage a fair vote. At a January 24 discussion at the Armenian Center of National and International Studies, parliamentarian Arshak Sadoyan, a founder and the president of the National Democratic Union Party, called for the opposition to unite in its efforts to have enough “strong-armed” people at polling stations who would be willing to “turn the voting into a velvet revolution” if officials attempt to rig the balloting. A week later, Manukian, the NDUP chairman, presented a similar proposal for opposition parties to create a “coalition of common interest.” However, no concrete actions have been reported yet on this measure.

Meanwhile, western governments and international organizations are emphasizing their own interest in a democratic vote. The United States has launched a $6 million program, in conjunction with non-governmental organizations and government agencies, to bolster the chances for a fair vote, including training for election commission officials. The United Nations Development Programme, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Council of Europe are running similar programs.

At a January 24 press conference, US Chargé d’affaires Anthony Godfrey, the US embassy’s senior representative in Yerevan, suggested Washington might adopt a carrot-and-stick approach to the vote. In terms of potential punishments, Godfrey noted that The Millennium Challenge Corporation’s board of directors is on record as stating that “[a] serious deficiency in the elections” could lead to a reconsideration of Armenia’s $236 million program. [For background see the Eurasia Insight Archive].

Opposition members remain skeptical about the effectiveness of such threats and measures. Despite its training programs, the West “eventually prefers to trust what the authorities say,” Manukian said, adding that the best use for US funds would be to bring in enough international observers to monitor the more than 1,000 polling stations taking part in the vote.

The Armenian government and supporters of the ruling coalition are less pessimistic. In a February 4 interview with Armenia TV, Defense Minster Serzh Sarkisian, a leader of the ruling Republican Party, denounced the opposition’s assertions that falsifications are inevitable. “I’ll do my best to have the elections honest, free, fair and transparent,” Sarkisian told viewers. “And not only me, [but] all the authorities will do the same. And this is because the authorities and the parties who have good chances to win and become part of the government as a result of the elections are the most interested in having good elections. No one is more interested in having good elections,” he said.

Earlier, Hrant Margarian, a leader of the Dashnaktsutiun (Armenian Revolutionary Federation) Party, a member of the governing coalition, said that his party would try to persuade voters to vote according to principles, rather than in response to offered “election bribes.” The comment, made January 29, appeared to be a thinly veiled reference to the Bargavach Hayastan, or the Prosperous Armenia Party, which has recently been the target of considerable controversy over charity work done by a foundation that shares the party’s name. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Some independent observers share this optimistic view. At a February 3 discussion at the Friday Club in Yerevan, sociologist Aharon Adibekian argued that although individual instances of vote-rigging are quite likely to occur, much depends on the behavior of the strongest political players in the race, the Republican Party and Prosperous Armenia. “If they reach a gentleman’s agreement and commit as few violations as possible, it will be possible to have democratic elections in Armenia,” Adibekian said.

Editor’s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer specializing in economic and political affairs.