EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Georgia Braces for Political Storm Following Coup Allegations

EURASIA INSIGHT

GEORGIA BRACES FOR POLITICAL STORM FOLLOWING COUP ALLEGATIONS
Irakly Areshidze 2/10/03

Georgia is bracing for a new political storm following allegations that members of President Eduard Shevardnadze’s inner circle were plotting a coup. The alleged conspirators vigorously deny planning Shevardnadze’s ouster, and have threatened to take action against opposition leaders for what they say is spreading unverifiable rumors.

Tbilisi’s Rustavi-2 television aired the first report February 4 of the alleged coup conspiracy, supposedly involving prominent government officials including State Minister Avtandil Jorbenadze, Interior Minister Koba Narchemashvili and other leaders of the Citizens Union of Georgia (CUG). The group reportedly met at Jorbenadze’s apartment at some point during the New Year’s holiday to discuss plans to force Shevardnadze from power. Jorbenadze is the leader of the CUG, which is the president’s chief political power base.

The Rustavi-2 report contained scant details and based its information on unnamed sources. However, prominent opposition leaders, including Zurab Zhvania and Mikhail Saakashvili, publicly supported the allegations. [For background on Zhvania and Saakashvili see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, Parliament Speaker Nino Burdjanadze also suggested during a February 4 television interview that the allegations had merit.

On February 5, leaders of the New Rights Party claimed that Jorbenadze, Narchemashvili and CUG parliamentary faction leader Vitali Khazaradze sought to engineer a constitutional coup to force Shevardnadze’s resignation. Their main aim, the New Rights leaders said, was to win parliamentary approval for a measure that would transfer authority over the ministries of defense, interior and security from the president to the state minister, Jorbenadze’s current position. Such a move would deprive the unpopular Shevardnadze of his most essential levers of power.

Another element of the plot, New Rights leaders suggest, was for the conspirators to foment massive street protests, like those witnessed in Georgia in October 2001. Deprived of direct control over the so-called power ministries, Shevardnadze would be hard pressed to maintain his grasp on power, if confronted with widespread unrest. Under the scenario outlined by New Rights leaders, Jorbenadze would succeed Shevardnadze and other conspirators would also occupy all key government positions.

New Rights officials also sought to draw a connection between the February 3 attack on their party’s headquarters and the alleged coup conspiracy [for background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The February 3 attack was orchestrated by Jorbenadze supporters and designed to serve as the catalyst for social unrest, New Rights leaders charged.

One high-ranking government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, shared the New Rights’ view of the February 3 incident. "The attack on the New Rights party clearly had greater aims than to simply scare an opposition party. Most members of the opposition came very close to bringing people into the streets, which would have served interests of only those, both inside and outside of government, who wish to remove Shevardnadze before his term is over," the official said.

Shevardnadze publicly downplayed the coup allegations, characterizing it as "rumor and gossip." However, during a televised portion of a government meeting February 5, the Georgian president indicated that he was taking the controversy seriously, addressing Jorbenadze with caustic sarcasm.

"Holding a meeting in the presence of your wife and children [an apparent reference to the reported meeting at Jorbenadze’s apartment] and discussing how to topple the president is not recommended and is certainly wrong," Shevardnadze said with a laugh.

"They [the alleged conspirators] are making plans on how to use the Russian scenario for removing the president from power in Georgia," Shevardnadze continued, a seeming reference to the orchestrated handoff of power from former leader Boris Yeltsin to incumbent Vladimir Putin. "If necessary, you should ask me and I will give you advice on the best way to do it painlessly."

Political observers believe that Shevardnadze’s response may be an indication that he is contemplating a government shake-up. "After all the joking was over, he ordered the general prosecutor to conduct an inquiry into the allegations, indicating that he took claims of a coup more seriously than simple rumor that is common in Georgian press," said Devi Khechinashvili of the Partnership for Social Initiatives (PSI) think tank in Tbilisi.

At the very least, pro-democracy activists hope that in light of the allegations, Shevardnadze might reign in Jorbenadze and pressure his own supporters within the CUG to stop supporting the state minister. Such a turn of events could weaken the CUG’s ability to retain control of the legislature following parliamentary elections scheduled for October.

The alleged conspirators vow they are innocent of wrongdoing and have publicly supported calls for a formal investigation into the incident. One of the supposed ringleaders, Khazaradze, announced February 6 that he was waiving his parliamentary right to immunity from prosecution in order to facilitate the inquiry. Meanwhile, Narchemashvili, the interior minister, intimated that the coup rumors were being fanned by the opposition in order to undermine the government.

"The perception of statehood in the eyes of the public is under fire here," Narchemashvili said in an interview broadcast by Rustavi-2 on February 5. "A useful principle operates in present-day spin doctoring. According to it, you need to accuse someone of something and force that person to start defending himself. � I do not want to play the part of a person who has been accused of something and is now being forced to defend himself. That would mean that they [the government’s opponents] have achieved something."

Narchemashvili demanded that his accusers, including Burdjanadze, Saakashvili and Zhvania, produce hard evidence of the existence of a conspiracy. He went on to hint that the coup allegations could exacerbate the political struggle between government and opposition. "Either the people who made such statements or I will be brought to account. There is no other choice."

Editor�s Note: Irakly Areshidze is a Visiting Fellow at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School for Advanced International Studies in Washington. Views expressed in this analysis are those of the author and not of the institutions with which the author is affiliated.

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