EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Opposition Support Grows Louder as Armenian Election Nears

EURASIA INSIGHT

OPPOSITION SUPPORT GROWS LOUDER AS ARMENIAN ELECTION NEARS
Emil Danielyan 2/10/03

Large numbers of Armenians are turning out for opposition campaign rallies as the country prepares for presidential elections February 19. Though the opposition remains divided, the evident popularity of President Robert Kocharian’s rivals may make it difficult for the incumbent to avoid a run-off election. Some Kocharian critics are complaining that the president is improperly utilizing state media and personnel in order to boost his support and avoid a run-off election.

Stepan Demirchian is attracting the largest anti-government crowds and emerging as perhaps Kocharian’s strongest challenger. Villagers slaughter dozens of rams in his honor and turn out in large numbers at his rallies, as they did during the 1998 presidential run of his father, Karen Demirchian. Stepan, 43, manages a state-owned electronics factory in Yerevan. His father governed Armenia from 1974 to 1988 and later served as parliament speaker. The elder Demirchian was among those Armenian leaders killed when assassins stormed the parliament in 1999.

Despite a vague political agenda and poor oratorical skills, Stepan draws comparisons to his father and thus is able to tap into the populist appeal that was enjoyed by the elder Demirchian. Many impoverished Armenians have become nostalgic about the Soviet era, which offered relative stability. In addition, Kocharian opponents remain convinced that Kocharian secured victory in the 1998 presidential election only by resorting to fraud. These two feelings are helping to fuel Stepan Demirchian’s effort to unseat the incumbent. "He is a real heir to his father," said one elderly man in Gyumri, Armenia’s second largest city and traditionally a Kocharian stronghold.

On February 8, Demirchian’s candidacy received a boost when former Prime Minister Aram Sarkisian withdrew hours before a registration deadline and urged his supporters to vote for Demirchian. Sarkisian said his pullout from the race effectively restored the Miasnutyun (Unity) bloc, which held power in Armenia from 1999 to 2000. Demirchian, along with Sarkisian’s powerful brother Vazgen, who also died in the October 1999 attack, led Miasnutyun to victory in 1999’s parliamentary elections. The movement faded following the parliament tragedy. Both men were charismatic leaders, and friends and relatives still suspect Kocharian of having a role in the assassinations.

There are now nine candidates for the presidency, including Kocharian. Apart from Demirchian, the three most visible challengers are Artashes Gegamian, Yerevan’s last Soviet-era mayor; Vazgen Manukian, Armenia’s first non-Communist prime minister; and Aram Karapetian, a former scholar who has lived in Moscow for most of the past decade and gained surprising name recognition in less than a year. All four men have been running vigorous campaigns, and none has agreed to withdraw his candidacy despite repeated opposition pledges to put forward a single challenger against Kocharian.

Buoyed by the strong attendance of their rallies, the opposition leaders claim that Kocharian is losing ground. They also allege the president is using unfair methods to cling to power. "I think you are all sure that in the event of fair elections Robert Kocharian cannot win. He himself knows that," Sarkisian declared at a huge rally in the southern town of Artashat with Karapetian in early February.

According to opinion polls by government-connected groups, the president’s popularity has nearly doubled in early 2003 and is now approaching the 50 percent threshold that would allow him to avoid a run-off vote. But other surveys commissioned by pro-opposition newspapers put Kocharian’s approval ratings at well below 30 percent and show Demirchian and other opposition hopefuls gradually narrowing the popularity gap.

Opponents continue to accuse the president of misdeeds. Karapetian had reportedly planned his own rally in Artashat, which fell apart after a group of Kocharian supporters beat up and stabbed the candidate’s campaign manager. Although Kocharian himself condemned the violence, and his allies argue that they are interested in holding a clean vote because odds favor the incumbent, observers say the Kocharian campaign shows signs of nervousness.

According to informed sources, state agency staffers have been mobilized to campaign for Kocharian’s re-election in violation of Armenian law. The law prohibits presidential candidates from using government resources in campaigns. There are growing reports (especially from rural areas) of government officials pressuring and even bullying subordinates and voters into supporting Kocharian. Armenian Justice Minister David Harutiunian, for example, has reportedly started holding quasi-confidential campaign meetings with teachers of Yerevan schools and their students’ parents.

One teacher who attended in such a meeting said that Harutiunian warned participants that victory by an opposition candidate could trigger another war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
People familiar with the situation say that whenever Kocharian holds a campaign rally the authorities interrupt classes in local schools and order their teachers and students to attend it.

There have also been allegations that Kocharian campaigners have started collecting voters’ passports and signatures under various pretexts. Opposition activists suspect that those will be used for vote buying and ballot box stuffing. The US ambassador to Armenia, John Ordway, has called the allegations "troubling" and urged the state to investigate claims of electoral meddling. Other Western diplomatic sources in Yerevan said that they expect to watch the upcoming election more closely than previous Armenian polls.

Editor�s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.

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