Azerbaijan's Geopolitical Intentions Subject of Increasing Speculation

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's recent visit to Moscow was marked by speculation surrounding Baku's geopolitical intentions. For the time being, Ilham Aliyev appears intent on maintaining the so-called "balanced" foreign policy approach instituted by his father, Heidar. Many political analysts believe, however, that Azerbaijan will sooner or later be forced to choose between Russia and the West.

Aliyev, who succeeded his father as Azerbaijani leader last October, met with top Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin, during his February 6-8 trip to Russia. At the conclusion of talks, the two presidents signed a declaration reaffirming a 1997 Friendship and Cooperation Treaty, as well as the Baku Declaration on Principles of Security and Cooperation in the Caucasus signed during Putin's visit to Baku in January 2001.

The so-called Moscow declaration "stipluates that the two countries will join efforts to support each other's sovereingty, independence and territorial integrity," according to a report broadcast by ANS television in Baku. Upon his return to Baku, Aliyev said that Azerbaijan, in signing the declaration, also signaled its intent to continue oil exports via a Russia's Novorossiisk pipeline, the Interfax news agency reported.

In recent years, Azerbaijan under the Aliyevs has managed a delicate balancing act, in which Baku has cultivated close relations with both the United States and Russia. Close cooperation with the West was seen as essential for the development of Azerbaijan's energy potential, including construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Meanwhile, Russian assistance was seen as critical to the country's stability.

Outside developments -- including the September 11 terrorist tragedy and the US-led invasion of Iraq – have prompted an increase in geopolitical maneuvering in the Caucasus, thus making it increasingly difficult for Azerbaijan to steer a middle course between the United States and Russia.

The signing of the Moscow declaration set off alarm bells among Azerbaijani opposition supporters, who expressed concern that Aliyev was prepared to move away from the United States and the European Union and steer Baku back into Russia's orbit. A report published in the Azerbaijani opposition newspaper Yeni Musavat accused Aliyev of "selling out our national interest." The February 8 article went on to quote political Xaqani Huseynli as saying; "This [the declaration] means that Azerbaijan is turning into Russia's satellite."

Many Russian commentators saw the visit from a decidedly different perspective. From Moscow's viewpoint, the Kremlin's chief goal during the visit was to keep Aliyev from drifting completely into the US sphere of influence. Russian leaders sought to convince Aliyev that only the preservation of a balanced foreign-policy course "corresponds to the national interests of both Russia and Azerbaijan," political analyst Pavel Belov wrote in a commentary published in the Kommersant daily.

Russian concerns about its geopolitical position in the Caucasus have risen in recent months, driven in large measure by the coming to power of an ardently pro-Western government in Georiga. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Russian leaders have also been unsettled by speculation that the United States wants to establish a military base in Azerbaijan. US officials have denied harboring plans for build an Azerbaijani base.

In Moscow, Aliyev went to great lengths to reassure his hosts that Baku remains committed to a balanced foreign policy. Shortly before the visit, Aliyev gave a wide-ranging interview to the Russian daily Izvestiya, in which he downplayed the possibility of Azerbaijan joining Western institutions, including NATO and the EU. "This is a matter for the future," Aliyev said of NATO membership.