Government Shake-Up in Tajikistan Courts Conflict

With parliamentary elections scheduled for Tajikistan in 2005, President Immomali Rahmonov appears intent on bolstering his authority. A recent government reshuffle aimed to diminish the power of Rahmonov's rivals within government structures, observers in Dushanbe believe.

Prior to Rahmonov's government shake-up, the Tajik Supreme Court's military collegium on January 12 sentenced Shamsiddin Shamsiddinov, deputy leader of Tajikistan's Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP), to a 16-year prison term on a string of dubious criminal charges. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. IRP representatives denounced the conviction and sentence as politically motivated. Some observers see the sentence as designed to intimidate the IRP, which is Central Asia's only officially recognized religious party, and which technically shares power with Rahmonov's People's Democratic Party. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Starting on January 19, Rahmonov switched a number of top officials, including the country's deputy prime minister, the directors of state broadcasting and statistics, the ministers of energy and the environment, and several district bosses. Presidential aides have claimed the make-over aimed to improve the responsiveness of a governmental system burdened by corruption and the political legacy of the 1992-97 civil war. Some observers, though, believe a purely political motive – a desire to eliminate rivals – drove the administrative changes.

On January 26, Rahmonov moved to reorganize his presidential guard, in the process removing a long-time political ally and guard commander, Lt. Gen. Ghaffor Mirzoyev. In his place, Rakhmonov named Rajabali Rakhmonoliyev, commander of the Tajik airborne assault battalion, and a native of the president¹s home district of Kulob.

Taken together, the moves appear part of an ongoing strategy to strengthen the president's political power. But some political analysts say that in sacking Mirzoyev, Rahmonov risked carrying his reshuffle too far, doing more to potentially undermine his authority than to reinforce it.

Making Mirzoyev potentially dangerous for Rahmonov is the fact that the general reportedly retains considerable influence within the presidential guard. The unit comprises about 3,000 troops, many of them fiercely loyal to their former commander. Mirzoyev was said to be outraged by his dismissal, and soon thereafter, rumors circulated in Dushanbe, the capital, that he was a central figure in a coup conspiracy.

At a January 30 meeting with Rahmonov, Mirzoyev seemed to put those rumors to rest. The meeting led to a presidential decree that appointed Mirzoyev as director of the country's Drug Control Agency, one of the country's most sensitive positions. The drug agency¹s previous chief, Rustam Nazarov, who had headed the unit since its formation in 2002, was set to serve as Mirzoyev¹s deputy.

The choice of the disgruntled Mirzoyev to head one of the country's most sensitive political assignments came as somewhat of a surprise to many in Dushanbe. Drug trafficking is perhaps the largest threat to stability faced by Tajikistan today. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Government agencies charged with stopping the drug flow are reportedly riddled with corruption. At the same time, the country's ability to stem the trafficking tide is seen as critical to the ability to attract foreign economic investment.

For Rahmonov, the appointment appeared the best way to defuse a difficult political situation, and for now, the move seems to have worked. Mirzoyev has said he is now focusing on pressing anti-trafficking efforts. In a recent interview with the Interfax news agency, Mirzoyev condemned government officials who are involved with traffickers as being doubly guilty.

Despite Mirzoyev's assurances of loyalty to Rakhmonov, an element of political uncertainty continues to hover over Dushanbe. The general is maintaining close ties with Dushanbe Mayor Mahmadsaid Ubaidullaev, chairman of the upper house of Tajikistan¹s parliament, and, reportedly, a potential candidate for president in 2006. Despite the apparently amicable relations between Rakhmonov and Ubaidullaev, many believe that the two are engaged in an ongoing behind-the-scenes struggle for power.