EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Opposition to War in Iraq Building in Central Asia

EURASIA INSIGHT

OPPOSITION TO WAR IN IRAQ BUILDING IN CENTRAL ASIA
2/13/03

In the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks, the United States dramatically increased security cooperation with Central Asian states, including the establishment of an American military presence in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Now states in the region are concerned that US interest in Central Asian security will wane as the focus on Iraq intensifies. These fears are prompting rising opposition among Central Asian leaders to a war against Iraq.

Kyrgyzstani Foreign Minister Askar Aytmatov on February 12 joined the chorus of critics of Washington’s Iraq stance, announcing Bishkek’s support for a diplomatic initiative by Russia, France and Germany to avert a war. "These countries’ [Russia, France and Germany] efforts to find a peaceful solution give some grounds for hoping that real opportunities to avoid extreme measures � exist," Aytmatov said in comments broadcast by state radio.

A major concern across Central Asia is that an Iraq war will decrease US interest in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. A stable, relatively prosperous Afghanistan, in the Central Asian view, is vital if radical Islamic activity in the region is to be contained. "As neighbors of Afghanistan, we have no interest in a decrease in the world community’s attention to building post-conflict society in Afghanistan," the Itar-Tass news agency quoted Aytmatov as saying.

At present, Central Asian states are struggling to keep underground radical Islamic groups, including Hizb-ut-Tahrir, in check. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. On February 12, Kyrgyz security officials voiced concern about an increase in Hizb activity in Kyrgyzstan, adding that the government believes the group is conducting a well-coordinated campaign to subvert Bishkek’s authority.

Both Kyrgyzstani and Kazakhstani diplomats have stated that the Iraq crisis should be handled within the United Nation Security Council. Kazakhstan "holds the view that UN Security Council resolutions should be unswervingly and unconditionally fulfilled by all states, including Iraq," the country’s foreign minister, Kassymzhomart Tokaev, told the Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency February 10.

Tokayev’s comments came during a meeting with the US envoy to Kazakhstan, Larry Napper. Earlier, the American diplomat asserted that any US military action in Iraq would have limited consequences for Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states. "I am absolutely sure that, if military operations take place, we will do our best to reduce the effect of such operations," Napper said in a February 7 interview with Khabar television.

Despite such assurances, many Central Asian political analysts remain skeptical about the value of an Iraq offensive to the overall effort against international terrorism. Writing in the Almaty periodical Novoye Pokoleniye, observer Dosym Satpayev warned that an Iraq war would result in a drastic cutback in US development and stability assistance for Central Asian states.

"A protracted conflict � may lead to global economic recession, which would automatically cut the flow of investment to former Soviet countries," Satpayev wrote in a January 17 commentary. "In the first turn, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan would suffer from this. The first two states would not receive investment promised in return for hosting [the US military bases]. � As for Tajikistan, in this situation its attempts to attract Western investment and to neutralize Russia’s excessive influence would fail."

In addition, the economic ramifications of a successful US military invasion of Iraq could be profound for Kazakhstan, a country that is largely dependent on oil and gas resources for development, Satpayev added. Saddam Hussein’s ouster, combined with a possible worldwide recession, couldspark a severe drop in the cost of oil. That, in turn, could create huge budget gaps for the Kazakhstani government, due to the shortfall in energy-related revenue. It could also serve to heighten tension between Astana and Moscow, Satpayev writes. If the cost of a barrel of oil drops precipitously, "Russia would naturally block access for Kazakhstani oil to world markets," so as to protect Moscow’s own market share, Satpayev’s commentary said.

Kazakhstani government officials, meanwhile, downplay the notion that a decline in oil prices � even to as low as $15 per barrel � would have a serious impact on the country. "Our economy will withstand this," National Bank Chairman Grigorii Marchenko told the Kazakhstan Today news agency February 5.

Some analysts question the United States’ motivation for taking an aggressive stance against Iraq, suggesting that the main factor guiding Bush administration policy is not terrorist-related security concerns, but more a desire to secure greater control over international energy markets.

"Although there are many other factors, including political factors, oil and the fight for oil seems to be the deciding factor behind the USA’s intention of starting a war against Iraq," Tajik commentator Suhrob Sharipov wrote in the Dushabe newspaper Asia-Plus. If the United States succeeds in driving Hussein from power and establishing de facto control over Iraq’s energy sector, Washington and "its oil companies will dictate oil prices."

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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