Eurasia Insight:
TURKMEN CITIZENS USE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AS OPPORTUNITY TO SPEAK OUT
2/13/07

Inside Turkmenistan, a state known as one of the most repressive on earth, some citizens treated the recent presidential election as an opportunity to express opinions about the country’s past, present and future.

The election, held February 11, was roundly condemned by Western international organizations and rights activists as rigged. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The likely winner, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, has expressed a desire to implement reforms, but the authoritarian manner in which the voting was conducted seems to have greatly diminished Western expectations for change in Turkmenistan, at least over the medium term.

Turkmen citizens, queried on election day, expressed hope that Berdymukhammedov genuinely desires to open the totalitarian system established by his predecessor Saparmurat Niyazov, who died suddenly in late December. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. “The mood in the country since Niyazov’s death is one of thaw,” said a Turkmen national. “It’s not like the thaw of the 1960s, where people went out into the streets with guitars. But now, there is more of a feeling of optimism.” In a reflection of the far-reaching nature of political repression in Turkmenistan, all Turkmen citizens who spoke to EurasiaNet for this article did so on condition of anonymity out of fear of official retribution.

One Ashgabat resident detected an element of glasnost’, or openness, in some state-controlled media outlets, including the official newspaper Neutralny Turkmenistan. “I've voted many times. This was like any other vote. What was different this time was the pre-election period,” the Ashgabat resident said.

“What was different for me was that it was interesting to read the newspaper, to read the comments of average citizens. I know many of them personally -- they are real people. I actually enjoy reading Neutralny Turkmenistan now!” the resident continued. “Mostly they wrote to urge candidates to introduce reforms in agriculture, private enterprise, education [and] pensions. What is gratifying is that people were expressing specific concerns, which never happened before.”

Another resident of the Turkmen capital suggested that the level of optimism about Turkmenistan’s future depended greatly on the age of the beholder: young people tended to be far more hopeful than those in older generations. “The country is very divided,” the Ashgabat resident said. “A lot depends on your age. The older generation has completely lost hope and any faith that things will change for the better. Some young people are more optimistic and want to believe things will be better.”

The presidential election offered a rare chance for citizens to interact with political leaders. “I voted and used the opportunity to go up to the hakim representative [mayoral aide] to express my concerns about our neighborhood, how the buildings are falling down … regular lifestyle complaints,” one Ashgabat resident said. “A lot of people came out to vote for that reason alone.”

Western news outlets and outside observers have cast doubt on the official turnout figure of almost 99 percent. While the government may well have exaggerated the figure, one Ashgabat resident indicated that a large share of citizens was eager to cast ballots. “Of course people on line were talking among themselves, asking; ‘who are you going to vote for?’” the resident said. “We were ‘reminded’ to go to the polls, but many would have gone anyway.”

One of those interviewed by EurasiaNet maintained that many Turkmen voters cast ballots for Berdymukhammedov of their own volition. Berdymukhammedov is perceived as possessing the survival instincts and political savvy needed to at least keep the state apparatus functioning, the interviewee said. The interim leader appears to command a considerable amount of respect merely because he remained in the upper echelon of power for several years under Niyazov, who conducted political purges with maniacal regularity. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

“Why did people vote for Berdymukhammedov? He withstood many years in the halls of power and survived, so he must know how to work the levers,” the interviewee said. “He’s like a fish in water.”

A significant number of Turkmen citizens appear to feel Berdymukhammedov represents the best bet for a stable political transition, even if he doesn’t turn out to be a reformer. “I really liked the fact that when Niyazov died, Berdymukhammedov didn’t miss a beat,” said an Ashgabat resident. “The business of government went on without any interruptions. People liked that, and took it into account when voting.”

Those hoping for change tend to temper their enthusiasm by a heavy dose of realism. “What is sobering has been the statements of some government officials to the effect: don’t expect any big changes. In our society, the written word carries a great deal of weight. So maybe they know more than we do,” a Turkmen citizen said.

Beyond the question of domestic reform, now that the presidential election is over, international attention is focusing on a question with profound geopolitical ramifications: Is Berdymukhammedov going to significantly alter Turkmenistan’s energy export strategy? At present, Turkmenistan sends its exports to Russia, but Western leaders hope to win the new Turkmen leader’s support for a trans-Caspian pipeline project -- a route that would enable the export of Turkmen natural gas via Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Underscoring the fact that the maneuvering is already underway, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan quickly announced that they would attend the Turkmen president’s inauguration on February 14.