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EURASIA INSIGHT

AZERBAIJAN: RADAR STATION LATEST CHIP IN STRATEGY GAME WITH RUSSIA
Mina Muradova and Khazri Bakinsky 2/15/07

In response to Russia’s move to push its gas export price higher, Azerbaijan is shoving back by raising the possibility of revising Russia’s lease to a radar facility on Azerbaijani territory. The Azerbaijani parliament may reconsider Russia’s lease of a strategically important Gabala radar station during its spring session, according to one pro-government MP.

In late January, Zahid Oruj, deputy chairman of the pro-government Ana Vatan (Motherland) Party and a member of the Parliamentary Committee for Defense and Security, told reporters that he would raise the question of the Gabala radar station’s "operating conditions" in Azerbaijan’s parliament, or Milli Majlis sometime in March. The parliament’s spring session opened on February 1. Oruj maintained that the lease "is purely an economic issue," but was clear on the motivation behind the timing of his proposal: "Russia’s energy policy makes it necessary to reconsider the agreement," he said, the agency AzerNews reported on January 24. "Russia’s actions in the past six months give us grounds for this."

The comments on the radar station’s future followed a January 15 statement by Ali Hasanov, the influential head of the presidential administration’s public and political department, that Russia "did not act as a gentleman" in unilaterally increasing its export price for gas to Azerbaijan from $110 to $235 per 1,000 cubic meters [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The price hike has been widely interpreted as a slap on the wrist for the export of Azerbaijani gas to neighbor Georgia, which has tried to slash its Gazprom imports in response to the higher prices. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

After the Russian price hike announcement, Azerbaijan cut off the pumping of crude oil via the Russian-run Baku-Novorossisk pipeline, saying that the oil is needed to provide fuel to run power plants, previously run by gas. Ironically for this oil-rich state, electricity and gasoline prices have subsequently skyrocketed, stoking considerable popular discontent. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In 2002, back when bilateral relations were on steadier ground, Russia and Azerbaijan signed a 10-year lease agreement enabling Moscow to operate the 22-year-old station, located in the northern town of Gabala, and formally known as the Daryal Analytical Information Center. Under the terms of the lease, Russia pays Azerbaijan $7 million per year for use of the station, described in one recent Russian television program as "the all-seeing eye of the Russian anti-missile defenses."

Oruj, the pro-government MP, did not reveal details about the Azerbaijani strategy to use the Gabala base issue as an instrument of pressure on Russia, other than to suggest that a "peer group of security and environment experts" may be assembled to review the lease terms. At a February 2 press conference in Baku, Vasily Istratov, the Russian envoy to Baku, said that Moscow is ready to discuss the Gabala rent agreement. "If the Azerbaijani side has questions on revising the rent, it should officially address the Russian side," Istratov said, Trend news agency reported. "Until now, we have not received such [a] request, but we are open for dialogue."

Meanwhile, presidential military advisor Vahid Aliyev has stated that the government has no plan to rework the lease agreement. "I cannot say whether members of the Milli Majlis will include the issue of increasing the rent fee for the Gabala radar station on the agenda of the forthcoming session," Aliyev stated in late January, AzerPress news agency reported. Baku intends to observe the status quo, he added: "Azerbaijan is a reliable country, a reliable partner and a reliable neighbor today."

One independent political analyst in Baku, however, argues that Azerbaijan should not only reconsider the terms of the radar station lease as retaliation for higher Russian gas prices, but "at least double the fee for [its] rent."

"The government should double the rent for Gabala radar station and use the income from this for improving living conditions for residents of the Gabala region," said Ismat Abbasova.

Both Abbasova and political analyst Leyla Aliyeva, however, believe the Azerbaijani leadership is bluffing. Both see Oruj’s maneuver as politically motivated, adding that a substantial revision of the lease terms would undoubtedly worsen already tense ties between Baku and Moscow. "If the Azerbaijani authorities demand reconsidering the agreement, it will lead to open confrontation between the countries," said Aliyeva.

At the same time, the issue resonates widely among Azerbaijanis, noted Aliyeva. "The public of Azerbaijan is against the existence of Gabala radar station on the territory of the country and environmental organizations repeatedly expressed their protest against an agreement on use of the station on a long-term basis."

The snowcapped mountains near Gabala are a prime destination for excursions, but ordinary Azerbaijanis often worry about the effects of radiation from the radar station, and refuse to travel in its vicinity.

One Baku ecologist agrees that the radiation from the station is, in fact, harming local residents and the surrounding environment, and argues that the facility should be shut down. "Magnetic radiation negatively affects the climate of the region, the environment in general, the health of people and eventually the gene pool of the nation," claimed Telman Zeynalov, president of the non-governmental National Center for Ecological Prognosis. Zeynalov reports that a recent investigation by the center’s physicians established that several "abnormal" children and cattle had been born within range of the station.

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources has dismissed the charge, however, saying that radiation levels in the area are "below normal." The ministry plans to install special equipment from abroad to measure electromagnetic radiation in the area by the end of 2007, said Gulshan Huseynova. "If there has not been equipment in the country and special analysis has never been made, it means that the statements of independent experts are not based on the facts," she added.

Editor�s Note: Khazri Bakinsky and Mina Muradova are freelance journalists based in Baku.

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