Armenia Could Move First on Protocol Ratification, Parliamentary Deputy Speaker Says

A comment by a senior pro-government member of Armenia's National Assembly that the Armenian parliament could be the first to ratify a reconciliation deal with Turkey has provided a fresh twist in the ongoing heated debate about the fate of the peace package.

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan submitted the protocols to the National Assembly on February 12, but stressed that Turkey must approve the deal before Armenia could follow suit.

National Assembly Deputy Speaker Samvel Nikoian, however, now notes that Armenia could take the initiative to approve the deal whether or not Turkey has done the same.

"I think it will be much better if Armenia continues to pursue its policy of taking the initiative," National Assembly Deputy Speaker Samvel Nikoian, a member of President Sargsyan's Republican Party of Armenia, said at a February 16 press conference.

While Armenia could wait for Turkey's ratification of the deal or consider the agreement simultaneously with the Turkish parliament, taking the initiative on ratification also remains an option, he stated.

That position does not curry favor with another member of Armenia's government coalition, the Prosperous Armenia Party.

"If the issue is presented so that we would have to be the first to ratify the protocols, our position will definitely be negative," senior Prosperous Armenia parliamentarian Naira Zohrabian commented to EurasiaNet.

Speculation has long existed that the reconciliation process with Turkey could split Prosperous Armenia, which holds 18 seats in the 131-member legislature, and the Republican Party, but Prosperous Armenia has denied that any rift exists.

Still, the Republican Party, which holds 41 of parliament's seats, appears to be playing its cards cautiously.

National Assembly Deputy Speaker Nikoian believes it is untimely to speak about deadlines without first seeing whether the ratification process advances, stagnates or takes a turn for the worse. The protocols are currently under discussion in the National Assembly's foreign affairs committee.

"The perception of what are reasonable dates [for ratification] should also be in keeping with the perception of the international community, the USA, Russia, and Europe," Nikoian said.

One opposition leader, however, argues that "time plays against ratification."

"Slowing down the process already shows we've reached some results," affirmed Stepan Safarian, leader of the parliamentary faction of the Heritage Party, which holds seven seats in parliament and has long objected to ratification of the protocols.

On February 10, President Sargsyan, who has made improving Armenian-Turkish relations a key policy objective, urged Turkish President Abduallah Gul to speed up Turkey's ratification of the protocols, warning that Turkish delay could ruin the entire peace process.

"[I]f, as many suspect, it is proven that Turkey's goal is to protract, rather than to normalize relations, we will have to discontinue the process," Sargsyan declared, speaking at the British Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.

Sargsyan repeated that he ruled out any possibility that the Armenian parliament would not ratify the protocols if the Turkish parliament approves the agreement.

One former parliamentary speaker, however, forecasts that the protocols will most likely not be ratified.

"[P]arliament is an independent body. Furthermore, deputies are free to express their viewpoints; this is a constitutional norm," said Tigran Torosian, who reportedly left his post and the Republican Party in 2008 over differences with President Sargsyan. Torosian argues that Sargsyan made a mistake "giving guarantees" that the National Assembly would approve the deal with Turkey.

Heritage Party parliamentary faction leader Safarian counters that however "independent" the National Assembly may be, many deputies are waiting to push the voting button "in a subordinate mood."

?he Heritage Party plans regional rallies against ratification and intends to "unite people both inside and outside the National Assembly doors" against the protocols, Safarian added. The Armenian Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun, a onetime government coalition member that holds 16 parliamentary seats, plans similar actions.

A similar determination to stick to their guns appears to prevail also among Prosperous Armenia parliamentarians, come what arguments may from fellow government coalition members from the Republican Party.

Prosperous Armenia member Zohrabian stresses that the onus ultimately lies with Turkey to make the promised ratification a reality.

"[T]he fate of the protocols depends largely on whether or not Turkey will ratify them. They are leading the game," she commented.