Continued European Union resistance to US plans for a quick blitz of Iraq is forcing the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia to choose sides. Caucasus nations have so far tended to side with the United States. Central Asian countries, meanwhile, appear divided with Uzbekistan generally backing Washington's position, and Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan drifting toward the European viewpoint.
EU leaders, meeting at an emergency summit February 17, issued a statement demanding Iraq's immediate and unconditional disarmament. At the same time, the EU insisted that an attack against Iraq should be the option of "last resort." Russia has come out in support of the European position, which contrasts sharply with Washington's. The Bush administration seems intent on launching military operations possibly within weeks.
In staking out positions on the Iraq question, the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus are influenced heavily by their own individual relationships with the United States, EU and Russia. The rise of radical Islam in both regions, Central Asia in particular, is also a major factor.
Georgia and Azerbaijan consider Washington as their main benefactor, especially following the September 11 terrorist attacks. The same holds for Uzbekistan. All three countries have prickly relationships with Russia and are wary that Moscow desires to reestablish a sphere of influence in the old Soviet space.
Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov stated after Secretary of State Colin Powell's February 5 speech to the United Nations Security Council that there was sufficient evidence to justify Washington's stance. "Powell's address
Editor's note:
Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is a Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies at the Heritage Foundation and author of Russian Imperialism: Development and Crisis (Praeger, 1998).
