Survey Finds Guns Ownership in Kyrgyzstan Less Serious than Previously Believed

A new survey on gun ownership in Kyrgyzstan raises questions about widely held assumptions concerning Central Asian security conditions. The study found that guns are less prevalent in Kyrgyz society than previously believed. The findings suggest that Kyrgyzstan should not be lumped together with "its friction-prone neighbors" when considering the potential for conflict in the region.

"Small arms are less of a problem in Kyrgyzstan than commonly assumed; few families own arms; demand is limited; and trafficking is modest," said the early February report, titled "Kyrgyzstan: A Small Arms Anomaly in Central Asia," and published by the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, Switzerland.

"While proliferation may pose a serious threat in countries such as Afghanistan and Tajikistan, this assertion cannot be applied to Central Asia as a whole," the report continued, stressing that Kyrgyzstan "is different from its southern neighbors."

It notes that Kyrgyzstan, a country of roughly 5 million, has a relatively low rate of gun-related crime, with just 323 incidents recorded from 2001-03. By comparison guns were involved in almost 10,000 crimes committed during the same period in Great Britain, a country with approximately 12 times more inhabitants than Kyrgyzstan.

Illegal firearms possession is relatively low, the report suggests. It notes that over the last eight years Kyrgyz law-enforcement authorities have confiscated roughly 5,000 firearms. Officials in neighboring Tajikistan, the scene of a bitter 1992-97 civil war, have confiscated 23,000 guns over the same period.

In addition, Kyrgyzstan does not appear to be experiencing a significant influx of weapons. "Arms trafficking through Kyrgyzstan is limited. This study finds no evidence of major weapons smuggling occurring in conjunction with [narcotics and human] trafficking."

As the title suggests, the report's authors – Neil MacFarlane, an international relations professor at Oxford University and Stina Torjeson, a doctoral candidate at Oxford – view Kyrgyzstan as an anomaly. Like many of its Central Asian neighbors, Kyrgyzstan is plagued by "substantial social frustration," fueled by economic dysfunction, rampant corruption and unresponsive government. Such conditions have helped spur the proliferation of firearms, and, in Tajikistan's case, civil warfare.

"Despite the serious economic, social and political challenges facing Kyrgyzstan, small arms and light weapons is not a critical human security issue [there]," the report maintained.

The study explored several factors that have helped Kyrgyzstan avoid the regional trend. It noted that Kyrgyzstan did not serve as a weapons depot during the Soviet Union's 10-year occupation of Afghanistan from 1979-89. Thus, "the amount [of weapons] that could leak from Soviet military stores and movements was lower than in many other Soviet republics." At the time of the Soviet collapse, the stockpile of arms "was smaller than in neighboring republics [e.g. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan]," the study added.

Also helping to keep small arms possession low in Kyrgyzstan is the fact that it has avoided large-scale and prolonged civil conflict. "The general level of security in the country remained sufficiently strong so as not to provide substantial incentive for individuals to arm themselves," the study said.