EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Russian Officials Move Swiftly to Keep Turkmenistan in Moscow's Camp

EURASIA INSIGHT

RUSSIAN OFFICIALS MOVE SWIFTLY TO KEEP TURKMENISTAN IN MOSCOW’S CAMP
Sergei Blagov 2/20/07

Russia is moving swiftly to dash Western hopes that Turkmenistan might come into play in the great game over Central Asia’s energy resources.

In the weeks between the death of former Turkmen dictator Saparmurat Niyazov last December and the February 11 special presidential election, won by Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, speculation mounted that Turkmenistan might reorient its energy policy away from Russia and toward the West. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A day after Berdymukhammedov’s February 14 inauguration, however, he met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov to reaffirm Ashgabat’s commitment to the existing energy export framework. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"I think Russian-Turkmenistani relations will be further consolidated in all areas, including the energy, oil and gas sectors, and in the humanitarian sphere," the official Russian news agency, RIA-Novosti, quoted Berdymukhammedov as saying during the meeting with Fradkov.

The Russian prime minister emphasized that Moscow and Ashgabat "share a common approach on nearly all issues, and we have agreed to stick to the earlier reached agreements." Fradkov added that the two states intended to "broaden contacts and do it with respect for each other," the Itar-Tass news agency reported.

On February 14, the day of his inauguration, Berdymukhammedov reportedly had a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which the two leaders pledged to explore ways to deepen bilateral ties.

The chief theme of Berdymukhammedov’s inaugural address was continuity in foreign and domestic policy. "Turkmenistan will strictly adhere to all of its international commitments and will continue to fulfill its obligations on energy supplies to foreign markets," he stated.

The new Turkmen leader had raised hopes during the run-up to the presidential vote that he harbored liberalizing tendencies, and might move to dismantle, albeit cautiously, the totalitarian system built by Niyazov. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. However, in his first interview following the election, published by the Turkmenistan.ru website on February 16, Berdymukhammedov stated emphatically that he had no intention of making radical policy moves.

"We will develop and maintain international political and economic contacts with our reliable partners," he said. He also quoted his father, who supposedly told him to "never run to where you can simply walk."

Berdymukhammedov expressed interest in stimulating "private and small business," expanding international trade ties, bolstering social welfare and improving the health and education infrastructure. While he did not explicitly renounce his earlier statements concerning the need for reforms, he indicated that change would come slowly. "Any attempt to solve a social, political or economic problem once and for all may only bring chaos," he said.

He categorically ruled out close cooperation with the West on a political reform program. "As for democracy, this tender substance cannot be imposed by applying ready imported models," Berdymukhammedov said. "It can only be carefully nurtured by using the wise national experience and traditions of previous generations."

While seemingly a policy conservative, Berdymukhammedov used the interview to cultivate an image of forward-looking leader. A trained doctor, he mentioned that he still tries to read medical journals. "I consider it necessary to be up-to-date regarding the current trends in medicine." He also claimed to work 14-16 hours per day, while insisting that he owed his rise to the presidency to his own "capacity, persistence and diligence rather than somebody’s patronage or relatives."

He admitted that working under Niyazov, who carried out purges on a regular basis, was difficult, but added that "these years [under Niyazov] were an excellent school of state administration."

During his trip to Ashgabat, Fradkov was accompanied by Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller, who met Turkmen Deputy Prime Minister Gurbanmurat Atayev. Gazprom and Turkmenistan reiterated an intention to strengthen an existing economic partnership, the Russian energy giant said in a February 15 statement. Turkmenistani gas remains important to Moscow because Russian natural gas monopoly Gazprom needs gas to make up for the shortages created by its export commitments to Europe, as well as to satisfy growing domestic demand for cheap gas. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

There are indications that, in the coming months, Russian officials will encourage their Turkmen counterparts to align Ashgabat with Moscow not only economically, but politically. In his interview, Berdymukhammedov said Turkmenistan intended to adhere to its long-standing policy of neutrality. "No one should expect that we will be part of political alliances in the international arena," the Turkmen leader said.

Yet, the secretary-general of the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization, Nikolai Bordyuzha, hinted that Turkmenistan may find it difficult to steer an independent course in Central Asia in the coming years. Speaking at a conference in Moscow on February 20, Bordyuzha stated that outside nations pursued policies intended to divide Central Asian states. He went on to caution that some Central Asian states harbored "illusions" about their ability to defend their sovereignty "without reliance on regional collective efforts." While Bordyuzha did not mention Turkmenistan by name, his comments were widely interpreted as referring to Ashgabat.

Editor�s Note: Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS political affairs.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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