Eurasia Insight:
TURKMENISTAN HIT WITH FRESH DEFECTION BY FORMER TOP ECONOMIC OFFICIAL
2/21/02

The list of top-level defectors from Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov's inner circle continues to grow. Former Deputy Prime Minister Khudaiberdy Orazov announced February 18 that he had joined Turkmenistan's opposition. While the defection certainly tarnishes Niyazov's image, experts say the opposition movement must overcome significant obstacles before it can exert influence on Turkmenistan's development.

Orazov once headed the country's Central Bank and represented it before the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. While other top-level defectors, including former foreign minister Boris Shikhmuradov, have focused their criticism on Niyazov's establishment of a cult of personality, Orazov has taken aim at exposing faults in Turkmenistan's economic development. He called the country's economic condition "critical."

"Like many of my colleagues … who have worked in the Turkmen government for many years, I have realized that all my attempts to change the situation in the country for the better are exhausted," the Interfax news agency quoted Orazov as saying. "Our opinion was not only ignored, but became the cause for accusations against us for various crimes."

Niyazov sacked Orazov in 2000, accusing him of poor performance and "personal immoderation." Accusations surfaced after his dismissal that he misappropriated about $10 million.

Another prominent defector is Nurmuhammed Hanamov, former Turkmen ambassador to Turkey. Orazov, Shikhmuradov and Hanamov form the core of the strengthening opposition movement. They have joined Avdy Kuliev, another one-time foreign minister now living in Moscow. Kuliev is considered the elder statesman of the opposition movement.

The defections began last November, when Boris Shikhmuradov lashed out against the regime. A day later, Turkmenistan's Prosecutor General's Office announced that Shikhmuradov was wanted on charges of embezzling nearly $30 million. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Niyazov has built a totalitarian system that has quashed all forms of domestic political opposition. Turkmen authorities register no parties and continue to repress all opposition political activities. In December 1999, Niyazov had himself declared president for life.

The defections have helped raise the opposition movement's international profile in recent months. Niyazov responded by reportedly banning government officials from going abroad for vacation. According to Moscow advocate Vitaly Ponomaryev, who heads Central Asian programs at the Memorial Human Rights Center, Turkmen secret services have also tried to prevent Turkmen experts who had already left the country from finding jobs in Russia and other former Soviet states.

As Turkmenistan's former top banker, Orazov is believed to have had access to sensitive and credible information about the country's, as well as Niyazov's own, finances. If he exposes some of that information, international criticism of Niyazov might coalesce.

Generating support within Turkmenistan is another matter. Several opposition leaders are grappling with image issues. Orazov and Shikhmuradov played a considerable role in creating the current leadership structure in Turkmenistan, and some observers question their democratic credentials. Their sudden emergence as opposition leaders has also fostered an impression among some long-time opponents that they are opportunists. Meanwhile, the pro-Niyazov Turkmenistan.ru web site has portrayed opposition leaders as a "club of former bosses."

At present, the opposition is concentrating efforts on getting the international community to put pressure on Niyazov. Shikhmuradov, in comments published by the Russian daily Izvestiya, claimed that relatives of the defectors had been arrested. He added that 1,700 Turkmen students in Turkey had signed the opposition's demands for free elections.

In early February, Kuliev held informal meetings with State Department officials. He later told EurasiaNet that there was "consensus over a need to create democratic and civil society in Turkmenistan." He declined to elaborate.

Kuliev claimed that the opposition movement had 4,000 activists within Turkmenistan. "On December 31, I sent a letter to Niyazov urging [that he] negotiate with the opposition," Kuliev said. "No reaction has ensued so far."

Kuliev added that repeated attempts at international mediation have failed. "I don't think international mediation can work under the current circumstances because now Niyazov views himself as above the international community," Kuliev said.

Editor’s Note: Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS political affairs.