EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Presidential Run-Off Raises Opposition's Hopes in Armenia

EURASIA INSIGHT

PRESIDENTIAL RUN-OFF RAISES OPPOSITION’S HOPES IN ARMENIA
Emil Danielyan 2/21/03

President Robert Kocharian’s failure to secure re-election in the first round of Armenia’s presidential elections makes a change in executive authority a real possibility. As recently as January, Kocharian seemed assured of securing a second five-year term. Now, he faces an unpredictable March 5 run-off with Stepan Demirchian.

Demirchian, who leads the center-left People’s Party of Armenia (HZhK), seems poised to win endorsement from virtually all other opposition leaders. A unified opposition could stand a reasonable chance of defeating the 48-year-old Kocharian. Allegations of ballot-box stuffing by Kocharian supporters during the February 19 first round of voting are helping to fuel the unification trend among opposition leaders. [For additional information see the EurasiaNet archives].

According to official preliminary results, Kocharian fell just short of gaining the 50 percent of the vote required to avoid a run-off. The announcement of the second round by the Kocharian-controlled Central Election Commission (CEC) provided an unexpected twist in authorities’ post-election scenario.

Before the campaign season kicked into high gear, Kocharian and his political allies appeared confident of securing a first-round landslide victory, figuring that the divided opposition would not offer a credible alternative to voters. [For background see the EurasiaNet archives].

Opinion polls conducted by government-linked organizations claimed that the incumbent enjoyed enough popularity to win 50 percent of all votes and avoid a run-off. Early unofficial returns from polling stations across the country, promptly reported by state television in the early hours of February 20, maintained this assumption. The pro-Kocharian daily Hayots Ashkhar, which went to press before sunrise, informed readers the next morning that Kocharian had already won the election with "55 to 60 percent of the vote."

Such projections came amid opposition allegations of widespread vote fraud by Kocharian supporters. During the night of February 19-20, agitated Demirchian supporters exhibited hundreds of ballots pre-marked with votes for Kocharian at HZhK headquarters in Yerevan. They claimed that only a small percentage of the pre-marked ballots had been discovered across the country.

Monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe reported that although the election was "generally calm and well-administered," the counting process was "flawed" and "the long-term election process fell short of international standards in several key respects."

In the meantime, the election commission, widely expected to declare Kocharian’s first-round victory, missed by several hours a legal deadline for the publication of preliminary election results. It announced the nationwide tally only after tens of thousands of opposition supporters rallied outside its heavily guarded offices. An unpublicized meeting between Kocharian and leaders of major political parties supporting him also preceded the commission’s announcement. The commission blamed the delay on a heavy snowfall, which commissioners said considerably slowed the vote count and tabulation. But commissioners did not explain how Armenia’s most mountainous and least accessible province, Syunik, managed to release figures much quicker than the capital did.

According to official figures, Kocharian won 49.8 percent of the vote or 0.2 percent less than was needed for an outright win. (The figure is remarkably precise for a country with troubled electoral history.) Demirchian came in second with about 28 percent, followed by another opposition candidate, Artashes Geghamian, who drew 17 percent. Demirchian aides challenged these figures too, demanding a recount and calling their candidate the rightful winner. Notably, three other opposition candidates joined Demirchian’s protest. This indicates that an anti-Kocharian alliance of convenience may deepen Demirchian’s support base in the run-off.

Kocharian, who seemed forced into the run-off after meeting with his supporters, finds himself confronting a single opposition challenger, which could complicate his political strategy. During the campaign, many disaffected Armenians reported feeling confused by the abundance of opposition candidates. These voters now face a clear alternative to Kocharian on March 5. That means Kocharian needs to adjust his campaign strategy, which had previously stressed economic development themes. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Major pro-presidential forces, such as the governing Republican Party and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, are expected to close ranks around the incumbent. But analysts say Kocharian must court various government officials and government-connected businesspeople to retain their loyalty.

This "power class" has provided considerable support for Kocharian in the past. But some local political analysts suggest these constituencies tend to give their support to the candidate that appears strongest. Some speculate that those within the bureaucracy and the government-connected business elite may interpret the fact that Kocharian is in a run-off as a sign of weakness, causing them to flirt with supporting Demirchian. The presidential camp’s message to the state apparatus, say observers, is that Kocharian failed to avoid a run-off only by a whisker and therefore remains very strong.

Kocharian’s campaign manager, Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian, admitted that the authorities have "failed to fully take into account the existing reality" and should now adjust.

"The techniques used by our rivals apparently proved effective. However, we are confident that we will win the run-off," he told a late-night news conference on February 20. The next two weeks will test Sarkisian’s optimism. While the choices are clear, the first round’s accusations of ballot fraud and delays suggest that the second campaign will be anything but calm.

Editor�s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and political analyst.

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