Eurasia Insight:
GEORGIA: TREADING CAREFULLY ON THE MATTER OF KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE
Giorgi Lomsadze: 2/21/08

President Mikheil Saakashvili’s administration in Georgia is cautiously eyeing developments surrounding Kosovo’s recent declaration of independence. There exists widespread concern in Tbilisi that international recognition for an independent Kosovo will prompt Russia to stir up diplomatic trouble in Georgia’s secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The Kosovo situation was high on the agenda during February 21 talks in Moscow between Saakashvili and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. In comments made at the outset of those talks, Saakashvili sounded a moderate tone, seeking to encourage a thaw in Tbilisi’s often confrontational relationship with Moscow. “We are obliged to normalize our relations, to overcome previous difficulties,” the Civil Georgia website reported Saakashvili as saying. “If we do not start over with a clean slate, we should at least give new momentum to our relations, because we all want it, and pin hopes on it.”

Putin said he was “glad” to hear that Tbilisi desired harmonious relations, adding that the Kremlin would “try to respond with reciprocity.” Taking a step in that direction, Russian officials announced that they would allow the resumption of direct airline flights between the two countries. Direct air service had been suspended since 2006. Kosovo declared its independence February 17, and the country’s new status was quickly recognized by the United States and key European Union nations. The move, however, placed Tbilisi a geopolitical bind. Failing to endorse the US-backed independence effort could potentially vex Georgia’s patrons in Washington. But if Georgia were to recognize Kosovo, such action could accelerate Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s efforts to make a permanent break with Tbilisi. Thus far, Georgia has refrained from expressing an opinion on Kosovo’s declaration. Ironically, Tbilisi’s silence tacitly puts it in the same camp with its long-time antagonist Russia, which is a steadfast opponent of an independent Kosovo. “Georgia, being a small state, has to maneuver discreetly through these contradictory positions,” Foreign Minister Davit Bakradze commented during Rustavi2 television channel’s Primetime talk-show. Tbilisi was particularly unnerved by the Kremlin’s hinting that events in Kosovo can be viewed as a blueprint applicable to other disputed regions, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Amid heated debates in the media and parliament, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that “[t]he declaration of sovereignty by Kosovo and its recognition will undoubtedly be taken into account in relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.” Tskhinvali and Sukhumi viewed the Kosovo development as a generally positive development for their internationally stalled quest for independence. Immediately after Kosovo’s declaration, leaders of the breakaway regions of Georgia called for similar international recognition of their status. Speaking at a joint news conference in Moscow on February 18, de facto Abkhazian President Sergei Bagapsh and South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity demanded a “universal approach” toward breakaway conflicts. “Abkhazia had done what Kosovo did 17 years ago,” Bagapsh claimed. The leaders said they would petition for recognition of the two states with Moscow, the United Nations and the EU. Later on February 18, Saakashvili vowed to rebuff any attempts to import “Kosovo scenario” into Georgia. “[I] want our society, as well as international community to realize that we … are capable of taking effective actions in response to steps directed against Georgia,” Saakashvili told reporters. Even the normally soft-spoken leader of Georgia’s Orthodox Christian Church issued an unusually strongly worded warning to Moscow. “Separatism is a contagious disease and everybody should remember this, especially Russia,” Patriarch Ilia II said in a February 18 sermon. Russia has experienced its own painful bouts of separatism since the Soviet collapse in 1991, underscored by the conduct of two ruinous wars in Chechnya. It is mainly because of its own nationalities problems that the Kremlin has been such a steadfast opponent of Kosovo’s desire to separate from Serbia. Now that Kosovo’s independence has been formally recognized, some political analysts in Tbilisi wonder what Moscow’s next move will be. Given the Kremlin’s displeasure with NATO’s expansion eastward, as well as the prospect of the installation of an advanced anti-missile system in Central Europe, some Georgian experts believe Russia may be tempted to recognize Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence. The foundation for such recognition was laid long ago by Moscow, which has granted Russian citizenship to the bulk of the two regions’ inhabitants. US and Russia have long locked their horns over Kosovo at the UN. Frustrated with lack of accord between Pristina and Belgrade, as well as for Moscow’s constant threats to veto UN endorsement of independent Kosovo, Washington moved to sidestep the international body. Irked by US unilateralism and attempting to reclaim its influence over former Communist vassals, Russia sided with Belgrade. Washington has downplayed the notion that Kosovo’s independence establishes a precedent that can be applied elsewhere. “The situation in Kosovo is a special case,” said a statement released by the US Embassy in Georgia on February 18. The statement points out that the UN Security Council resolution on Kosovo intended to determine Kosovo’s future status through a political process that contemplated the possibility of independence. “In sharp contrast, the UN Security Council Resolutions on Georgia… reaffirm the commitment of … all Security Council Members to the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Georgia.” Tbilisi-based conflict management analyst Paata Zakareishvili suggested that Moscow, by hinting at a desire to recognize Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence, was merely trying to rattle the Saakashvili administration. He added, however, that Russian leaders were likely bluffing. “Russia doesn’t need the creation of new, unstable states on its border, in what is [already] a conflict-prone region, and strip itself of a powerful tool to influence Tbilisi,” Zakareishvili told EurasiaNet. “There will be no recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Moscow.”

Editor’s Note: Giorgi Lomsadze is a freelance reporter also based in Tbilisi.