A dispute over the turnout in Iran's recent parliamentary elections is tainting what conservatives are seeking to portray as a convincing triumph. Reformists do not dispute that they have lost control of parliament, but some nevertheless characterize the election as "a defeat for conservatives."
According to the latest results of the February 20 election, conservatives have won at least 149 seats in 290-member legislature, assuring them of a majority in the next parliament. Reformists, independents and representative of small religious parties have won a minimum of 65 seats. Final results were expected as early as February 24. In at least 36 election districts, no candidate appeared close gaining the necessary 25 percent of the ballots cast, thus requiring a second round of voting.
Most political analysts considered the retaking of parliament by conservatives a foregone conclusion, given that the hardliner-dominated Guardian Council, a religious body responsible for vetting candidates for political office, disqualified hundreds of reformist candidates, including dozens of current MPs. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Prior to the vote, many observers believed turnout, more than the actual voting results, would serve as the election's key indicator determining what conservatives will be able to do with their parliamentary majority. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Given the importance of turnout in total, it is not surprising that the issue is the subject of a bitter dispute between reformists and conservatives. Seeking to enhance the popular mandate for their political agenda, conservatives insist that the election featured close to 60 percent turnout. Meanwhile, the reformist-controlled Ministry of Interior, which is technically responsible for overseeing the ballot-counting process, says just over 50 percent of the electorate turned out to vote.
If the Interior Ministry's figure is accurate, it would mark the lowest turnout total for a parliamentary election in the Islamic republic's 25-year history. But some reformists contend that even the Interior Ministry's total is inflated, adding that the real turnout for the election was below 50 percent. Political observers say the 50 percent threshold is key: a minority turnout would seriously undermine the legitimacy of the next parliament, hampering its ability to promote any political agenda.
A leading reformist party, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF) disputed the Interior Ministry's turnout figure for the capital Tehran (33 percent), asserting that only 28 percent of eligible voters cast ballots. Even if the Interior Ministry's total was taken as the actual turnout, some reformists said that it was achieved only through the use of coercive measures and outright ballot manipulation by conservatives. In an attempt to substantiate their assertions, reformists cited media reports of multiple voting by members of the conservative-dominated armed forces. Several reformist MPs additionally claimed that up to 25 percent of the ballots cast were blank.
"Many feared their qualification for school or employment may be jeopardized [by conservative retribution] if they cannot show an election stamp on their identification card," said a journalist in Tehran, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The parliamentary election generated international criticism. A European Union spokesman said the vote including the candidate controversy during the campaign marked a "setback for democracy" in Iran. Whether or not the election has any impact on EU-Iranian relations remains to be seen, however. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw suggested that the tainted election could hamper trade talks between the EU and Iran. On February 23, however, the official Iranian news agency, IRNA, quoted Spanish Foreign Minister Ana Palacio as saying the EU should "maintain constructive dialogue" with Tehran.
Ali Shakouri-Rad, an IIRP leader, said at a post-election news conference that the low turnout constituted a severe setback for conservatives. Another IIRP official, Mostafa Tajzadeh, predicted that the lack of a clear popular mandate would provoke infighting in the conservative camp.
Some Iranians said the reformist strategy featuring a withdrawal from the political process during the final weeks of the election campaign was a success. In the final days before the election, reformists urged voters to stay away from the polls, sending text messages via the internet and cell phones [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Though reformists left many of their supporters disillusioned due to their inability to press reform legislation through the outgoing parliament, "at the last moment, they [reformists] succeeded in showing people ... that this election is unjust and not free," said Maryam Navab, a Tehran university student.
Other Iranians said the reformist boycott only had a minimal impact on the turnout. "I did not participate because I am tired of the political games," a Tehran resident told EurasiaNet, reflecting the widespread feeling of civic apathy in Iranian society. "To me, they [politicians] are all the same."
Editor's note:
Camelia Entekhabi-Fard is a specialist on Iranian and Afghan affairs and is a frequent contributor to EurasiaNet.
